FMR U-S AMB TO LEBANON TALKS TO CNN
<p><b>***FULL INTERVIEW CAN BE DOWNLOADED HERE:***</b></p>\n<p></p>\n<p>https://f.io/1hQhgFP3</p>\n<p></p>\n<p><b>--SUPERS</b>--</p>\n<p>:00 </p>\n<p>Isa Soares</p>\n<p>London </p>\n<p></p>\n<p>:26 </p>\n<p>Jeffrey Feltman</p>\n<p>Fmr. U.S. Ambassador to Lebanon</p>\n<p></p>\n<p>5:09</p>\n<p>John Bolton</p>\n<p>Former U.S. National Security Adviser</p>\n<p></p>\n<p><b>--LEAD IN-- </b></p>\n<p>JEFFREY FELTMAN IS A VISITING FELLOW IN INTERNATIONAL DIPLOMACY AT BROOKINGS.</p>\n<p>AND HE SERVED AS THE U-S AMBASSADOR TO LEBANON DURING THE 2006 ISRAEL-HEZBOLLAH WAR.</p>\n<p></p>\n<p><b>**ATTENTION AFFILIATES: BELOW IS A ROUGH TRANSCRIPTION PROVIDED BY AN AUTOMATED SERVICE. THIS MAY NOT BE EXACT. PLEASE CHECK FOR ACCURACY BEFORE TAKING TO AIR.**</b></p>\n<p>Ambassador, welcome to the show. Uh As we've just laid out, you were ambassador during the 2006 war. I wonder as you look at what's happening now at this uh aerial offensive at this ground offensive in Southern Lebanon? What you, what stands out to you really in terms of the differences and the similarities here. What strikes, what strikes me of the difference is this is far more dangerous than 2006 was 2006 was a devastating war triggered by a Hezbollah cross-border raid into Israel that killed and kidnapped Israeli soldiers and lasted for 34 days, ended in a stalemate. And both Hezbollah and Israel have spent the last 18 years implementing the lessons learned from that stalemate. Hezbollah's arsenals are bigger. They have more sophisticated weapons, longer range range weapons and they become battle experienced by propping up Bashar Al Bashar al Assad's regime in Syria. The Israelis for their part, have kept their eyes on Hezbollah and have worked on penetrating them in terms of their intelligence, which we've and we've seen the results of that. Already. In the last two weeks, there have been more Lebanese killed than were killed in that entire 34 day war. So when I look at this, I find the, the, the signs to be quite ominous that this is going to be far worse than the war was in 2006 in terms of the type of devastation, um that could be brought upon Lebanon and the Hezbollah, even though Hezbollah's been Hezbollah leadership has been decapitated. Their, their military capabilities have been degraded. They still have considerable abilities to hit back at Israel and particularly the Israeli troops in the South. Yeah, and they're putting up a fight as we've just heard from Ben Wed in southern Lebanon ninth Israeli soldiers being killed just today and back in 2006, it was also ambassador called a limited operation and it lasted what, 34 days and like you said, it was a stalemate. As you look at what's unfolding here. Do you think that this will be any different or any shorter? And just speak to the impact on the region here, the potential impact on the region? Well, I think that the Israelis are, are trying not only to achieve the type of stability that would allow the 60,000 plus Israelis to go home, which is an enormous political humanitarian issue in Israel. But I think the Israelis are also trying to change the strategic balance in the entire Middle East. Hezbollah was not only a Lebanese, you know, political party Militia in our definition, terrorist organization, it was Iran's first line of defense. So by degrading Hezbollah's military capabilities, at least in the short term, Israel is also degrading Iran's deterrence capabilities. So this does have enormous ramifications, terrible humanitarian consequences for Lebanon. But it also has strategic implications for the region at large. As Israel tries to rebalance the powers in the Middle East. Let's focus on that because we have heard part of the strategy is to escalate to de escalate, right? Ambassador. But we have heard a lot in the last few days of military strategy and we've seen military achievements. You've named a couple, but we haven't seen what I haven't heard thus far. Maybe you have is a plan for peace, neither in Gaza nor in Lebanon. Does that worry you? And do you believe that diplomacy can turn this around where? Because so far it seems to have failed. It worries me tremendously. Um And I keep thinking of that famous David Petraeus quote after the um the US, you know, misguided invasion of Iraq in 2003, tell me how this ends because does Israel really want to occupy Gaza again indefinitely and occupy the West Bank indefinitely with a hostile rescue population and occupy southern southern Lebanon? Definitely, I can't imagine any Israeli politician would see that as, as being particularly attractive. The the war right now against Hezbollah in, in Lebanon has great popular support. So it's one time where the Israeli strategic objectives, the Israeli tactical goals of getting people home, the public opinion and Netanyahu's personal interest in maintaining his position and power all coincide. How long will that last? If the casualties rise or if it, if it becomes clear that there's that there's an indefinite occupation in three different, in three different geographic areas with, with no horizon for a political settlement. Yeah, le let's broaden this out to the region because, and I think it's important we bring Iran, we've talked about Hamas or Hezbollah. Let's talk about Iran. Uh President Biden and you would have heard this ambassador and made it very clear just yesterday. I think that he wouldn't want to see any of the Iran's nuclear sites being targeted. We are currently waiting to see how Israel will respond. But I want to play what ambassador John Bolton who served as you well know, as national security adviser under President Donald Trump had to say about this. Have a listen, even if that's his opinion. Why do you tell Israel's adversary? And by the way, America's adversary in Tehran, what you're not going to do? Let them worry about it. You can make the decision but telling them what you're giving up or what you hope the Israelis give up is just a failure of diplomacy. 101. What do you make of those comments and the criticism that's been leveled on President Biden? Well, you, you'll see a great division in this country, not only between Republicans and Democrats, but within the parties about what should happen in the Middle East. Um But what I take away from all this is we are not in the driver's seat. Um You know, the Biden administration called for, called for something other than a full scale invasion of Rafah. Many months ago, there was a full scale invasion of Rafah. They announced that we were on the threshold of a 21 day cease fire between Hezbollah and Israel to allow a Gaza ceasefire negotiations to sort of um ripen that, that didn't happen. And of course, the ga how many times have we heard that the Gaza cease fire um hostage release humanitarian surge deal was, was on the threshold and it hasn't happened. So I simply don't think rightly or wrongly we're in the driver's seat right now and very briefly, why are we not? Why is the Uni United States not in the driver's seat then? Does it speak more to the relationship between President Biden? Uh and Prime Minister Netanyahu? That's been frosty or does it show perhaps point more to, to lack of uh leverage and influence of the United States in the region? How do you read that? I think it's a combi, it's a combination of things. I um I think that the, that the Israelis truly and understandably feel that they, that they have to deal with an existential threat on their northern border the existential threat, the most powerful partner of Iran on their northern border. So there's an existential issue. We are not facing an existential issue. We have a friendship and, um, partnership with, with, with Israel, but it's not the same. And there's our politics who's gonna tell Netanyahu today, you shouldn't go after Hezbollah, you shouldn't try to defend your, your, you know, you should try to defend yourself 33 days before us. Elections. It just, it, it doesn't work politically for us and it doesn't work either politically or strategically for Israel. Yeah. And we heard President Biden say, we don't tell Israel, we advise it uh ambassador, really appreciate you taking the time to speak to us. Thank you, sir. Thank you.</p>\n<p><b>-----END-----CNN.SCRIPT-----</b></p>\n<p></p>\n<p><b>--KEYWORD TAGS--</b></p>\n<p>LEBANON ISRAEL STRIKES HEZBOLLAH IN- INTERVIEW </p>\n<p></p>\n<p><b>--MUSIC INFO---</b></p>\n<p></p>