Earth 2100 Interview Jeremy Jackson HD
FOR ABC NEWS - 20/20 147 Columbus Avenue New York NY 10023 DATE 7/11/08
PROGRAM 20/20 Earth 2100 Jeremy Jackson-Tp 109-111 BGT NO. 1082724
TAPE 109.
[OFF CAMERA COMMENTS]
INTERVIEWER
[14;02;06;15] So in terms of when you look around the world today, what are the signs you see that, that we're heading where we are, uh, you know, heading towards some really serious shocks, heading towards collapse in terms of the oceans?
JEREMY JACKSON
[14;02;20;03] Well, they're, if you go to the Chesapeake Bay, about fifty miles from the nation's capital, the, the water is, uh, incredibly dirty. It's, it's, it's full of all these, these, these algae, a lot of which are toxic. It, it loses all its oxygen in the bottom waters almost every summer. [14;02;41;10] Um, the fish die, the crabs die. There's no oysters left. Um, oysters used to be incredibly abundant. They were hazards to navigation. The reefs, they, they were incredible - rich resource. Um, the, we spend a fortune - hundreds of millions of dollars every year - to make the bay better and it just keeps getting worse. [14;03;04;12] Um, it's sort of obvious why, in terms of not changing our behavior. But, um, you can multiply that by all the large estuaries and coastal seas of the world. Um, I can't think of a single one which is, uh, in anything vaguely like a healthy condition.
[14;03;23;02] Fishkills, all these things have happened. You go off the mouth of the Mississippi River and there's something called the dead zone, which is, um, like the size of two New Jerseys. And it's caused by all the run-off of fertilizer from the Mississippi drainage because we use so much fertilizer, which is artificially made. [14;03;46;08] Um, every summer the dead zone grows like a kind of monster in the ocean. It's not really dead. It's full of jellyfish and bacteria. But the fish die, the shrimp die. Everything we value dies. Um, again, it's because all the oxygen is used up by this hyper-productivity. [14;04;06;23] Um, ninety per cent of the big fish that we like to eat are gone from most of the open ocean. Uh, cod was so abundant once there were World Wars over cod. It was, uh, the second or third most valuable natural commodity in the world for two centuries. [14;04;29;18] Uh, it fed the entire slave population of the Caribbean and, and, and much of Western Europe.
Um, we stopped fishing cod thirty years ago and it hasn't come back. Um, the, uh, blue fin tuna is on the verge of extinction. A single fish that's not been frozen in the Tokyo fish market is worth a hundred and fifty thousand to two hundred and fifty thousand dollars. [14;04;56;24] Um, we will, at those kinds of prices we will fish blue fin tuna until we've got the last blue fin tuna. Um, climate change is, uh, is inexorable. It's, uh, moving very fast. The, the water of the ocean is, uh, warming at a rate which is higher than the most dire predictions of the, um, of the, the whole global climate report. [14;05;28;15] The, the, um, in 2005, for example, there was a pool of hot water in the Eastern Caribbean that, um, was unprecedented and, and in many places -- I saw photographs yesterday at a, at a meeting. Um, eighty, ninety, ninety per cent of the, ninety-five per cent of all the corals bleach, they throw out, uh, the symbiotic algae that live in their tissues.
[14;05;58;12] Those algae manufacture the sugar, which is the primary diet of the corals. It's a pathologic response. It's, uh, not really interest...in the interest of the corals to do it, but they, they're sort of tricked into it by the, the freakiness of what happens. [14;06;16;13] And when that happens a quarter or a third of them die, um, depending upon the severity of the bleaching, all of them can die. So it just goes on and on and on. And then, and these are all things we measure and we see. [14;06;30;19] Um, I work at, uh, at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography. And it's a place where, where people are out on the ocean all the time. They're measuring the acidity of the ocean all the time. We know that in the last ten or fifteen years the, the ocean has decreased by a tenth of a P.H unit. [14;06;51;03] Now, what does that mean? That, that, that means, uh, the, the normal ocean has a, a P.H of eight, eight point one. Um, it's already dropped a couple of units. Seven point four is disaster.
[14;07;05;13] Seven point four is when clams and snails and corals that build their houses out of calcium carbonate -- the shell of a snail or a clam or the skeleton of a coral - they can't make the skeleton. Um, so it's a little hard to have coral reefs if you don't have any skeleton. [14;07;24;13] Um, so we just, uh, it's, it's, it's, it's amazing and everywhere you look. If, if, if ocean environments were thought of as species, in terms of the Endangered Species Act, then coastal oceans and estuaries would be critically endangered. [14;07;46;27] Coral reefs would be critically endangered. The continental shelves of the global ocean would be endangered and the high seas would be threatened. I mean, that's all of the environments of the surface ocean and, and probably the deep sea as, as well. But I don't know anything about the deep sea.
[14;08;09;11] I, and, um, in fact, you know, ignorance is bliss. So, because there's much less understanding of the changes that happen in the, the deep ocean. They're not really on the radar screen. So it's, it's very grim. And, and I suppose the, the most important point is this isn't hypothetical. This is what we measure. [14;08;31;20] If we project out to the future, uh, which is always much more risky, um, there are certain things that are, that are pretty obvious. Um, the dead - I, um, I got involved in thinking about these issues about ten years ago. [14;08;49;08] When I began it was recognized that there were perhaps a hundred of these dead zones around the world. Now there are more than three hundred. Uh, when I first started to look at these issues, um, toxic algal blooms happened occasionally. Now they're happening almost all the time. [14;09;14;26] Um, and so it's, it's just really speeding up. And this issue of the acidity of the ocean is just something that any thinking person has to be terrified of because, um, a lot of the, a lot of the primary production of the ocean, a lot of the basic cycles that make the air we breathe the way it is, um, are, are based on, uh, organisms that have little shells.
[14;09;45;19] And, and there have been experiments done, um, that show when the ocean becomes somewhat acidic they can't make their little shells anymore. We, we don't have a clue what that means. You know, we don't know whether there are organisms that will take their place, that will do just as well, that will continue to be productive. [14;10;05;27] Um, but it's scary to contemplate the fact that the most important primary producers in the surface ocean in cold waters of the, of the global ocean are creatures that can't make their shells when the ocean becomes more acidic. [14;10;24;00] And we know the ocean is becoming more acidic. So it, it, it's, it's quite striking.
INTERVIEWER
So when you look ahead, you know, to, um, 2015, say, what - are you talking about shells of, of, uh, fish, what are we talking about, in terms of which specific species are gonna not be there?
JEREMY JACKSON
[14;10;45;00] You know, if you look, if you look ahead at, to 2015 you wouldn't see much of a difference, because it's only seven years. And, and change creeps up slowly. And, and until some threshold or tipping point is reached and then all hell breaks loose and, and, and you just, you - what happened, you know? [14;11;05;15] But my guess is that 2015 won't look very different and the nay sayers will say, You see, it's, it's, uh, the oceans have become a little bit more acidic but not that much has happened. Uh, um, there's a few more dead zones but we still have fish to eat. [14;11;22;04] Um, most people don't realize that the vast majority of the fish they eat does not come from the United States. It's basically stuff that we, we get from the West Coast of Africa or off the coast of Antarctica. You know, we're, we're, we're not only fishing down the, the, the food web to lower and lower and less and less desirable forms, but we're also fishing out geographically further and further away from the rich countries.
[14;11;55;00] And, um, and that's why fish are still rather cheap in a place like a Costco. So fifteen, by 2015 it'll just be a little worse. It'll be like gas prices creeping up. By 2025, um, unless we, we virtually ban high seas fishing, um, goodbye tuna fish. You know, I mean, it, those kinds of things. And then people will say, Well, why didn't you tell me? [14;12;22;11] But the, but the, because these, it'll be like cod. Cod is a, a very important model because, uh, we fished it for four hundred years. And, and people said, Well, you know, you've warned us about this before but we still have it. And then all of a sudden we didn't have it. [14;12;42;02] Thirty-five thousand people lost their jobs in one day. They never got them back. Um, in California, um, tuna is a big deal. And, uh, not to mention that we're sort of finding out that dolphin-safe tuna aren't dolphin-safe because the tuna don't like being caught in those nets and so they don't reproduce.
[14;13;04;15] And so the dolphins are going down the drain and the tunas are becoming rarer. Um, the most important fisheries in California are invertebrates, are things like squid and shellfish. Uh, they're no longer fish because most of the, most of the fish have been fished to the point where they're not, uh, a viable industry. [14;13;25;06] Tuna are still going fairly strong. There are no salmon left, uh, to fish in the northwest. Salmon, I think, are the cod of the Pacific. Um, who can imagine a world, um, you know, without lox and bagels? And then we'll farm it and we'll say, That's fine. [14;13;46;10] But we feed that farm salmon, um, this trash fish that we, we catch. Um, it's full of stuff that if you knew what was in it you probably wouldn't want to eat it. Um, and, uh, it's like farming lions and tigers. So imagine raising corn to feed cattle to feed to lions to eat the lions. It's not, um, it's not real efficient.
[14;14;10;11] But salmon are lions and tigers. They're, they're top predators. They use up a lot of energy to, to make their flesh. And, and so, uh, what's dangerous is that, um, is that the next ten years won't be that bad. It'll be just like gas prices. The, and that could lull us into thinking, Well, we can adapt. [14;14;39;09] Um, but the tipping points - you know, the straw that broke the camel's back, um, syndrome is, is, um, is really scary. And we've had tipping points like cod and salmon. We've had tipping points like the, the creation of dead zones in places that once had very rich fisheries. [14;15;00;26] Um, we think we see tipping points coming with coral bleaching. Um...
INTERVIEWER
Explain that. Explain tipping points in terms of coral bleaching and coral reefs. What -
JEREMY JACKSON
[OVERLAP] Well, the --
INTERVIEWER
[14;15;11;29] [OVERLAP] What happens? What, what do you see?
JEREMY JACKSON
[14;15;13;27] [OVERLAP] Well, you can't have a coral reef without coral. Coral's, uh, it's like New York City. You know, the corals are the buildings. And, and, and, you know, you, every time I go to New York there's one new building going up and there's one new building coming down - per, on every block. [14;15;30;23] And, and reefs are the same way. So there are corals growing and building buildings. And then there are all these things like sea urchins and whatever that are grinding them down and, and, and eating them and storms that, that break them up. [14;15;45;06] And, and so there's a dynamic balance. And if the rate of destruction exceeds the rate of construction, then you don't have a New York City anymore and you don't have a coral reef anymore. [14;15;58;05] And that's what's starting to happen in reefs all over the world because the corals are dying at increasing rates from more frequent hurricanes and stronger hurricanes but mostly from this phenomenon of coral bleaching where the water gets too warm.
[14;16;16;26] This happy relationship between the coral and the, the algal cells that live inside it breaks down. The, the algae don't make the food for the corals. The coral says, You know, you're not paying your rent. The coral kicks 'em out. They, they turn white, which is why it's called bleaching. [14;16;33;13] And, um, they start to starve. And, um, [CLEARS THROAT] in, in good scenarios they get 'em back. And there are lots of different kinds. And one of the hopeful things is that some of these algae are more resistant to high temperature than others. [14;16;49;28] And so there's, um, there's a very real possibility that we may see some adaptation of this relationship. Um, but a lot of them die. Um, uh, in, in 1998 in the very strong El Nino, um, eighty per cent of all the corals in the Indian Ocean bleached.
[14;17;11;10] Uh, the, the, there's an analogy that, that, that actually my wife gave me, which is that imagine you go camping on the 4th of July somewhere in, let's say on the Appalachian Trail. And you wake up in the morning and look around and eighty per cent of all the trees have dropped their leaves overnight. [14;17;29;26] And you come back to, to D.C. and, and, and you turn on the tube and you discover that eighty per cent of all the trees in all of North America dropped their leaves. And then about a month later, you know, on page seventeen of The New York Times, buried somewhere down below, it says, Oh, and by the way, a quarter of all those corals died. [14;17;53;14] So imagine how you'd feel if twenty per cent of all the trees in North America died because of something that happened on the 4th of July. Well, that's what happened in the Indian Ocean, to the corals of the Indian Ocean. And we sure as hell didn't read about it on the, the front page of the paper.
[14;18;11;03] Um, coral reefs can't sustain many of those events. If, if, if, if twenty per cent of all the buildings in New York got knocked down in one bad year and this sort of thing happened every five years there wouldn't be any New York in twenty years. And, and so this is what we're all terrified. [14;18;29;26] Um, and then, um, you know, they also, corals grow more slowly when the environmental conditions aren't so good. That's as if, you know, the unions had four days off and three days to build the buildings. And so the buildings go up more slowly. [14;18;44;06] And, and so, uh, but the, you know, the guys who are tearing them down are tearing them down at the same rate. And so just because the construction is slower, the balance between construction and destruction is, is, is altered. [14;18;59;28] So coral reefs are, it's a, it's a very grim story. We, we, uh, we have over fishing, which we can do something about.
[14;19;05;22] I, I gave a talk yesterday about, at the Coral Reef Meetings, about, about, uh, the, this, this shifting base line problem that we forget how luxuriant coral reefs were, um, the value of local protection and the, and the global threats. And, um, we're all so terrified of the global threats we tend to forget that, um, that over fishing is also a problem. [14;19;34;03] If we waved our magic wand and, and made global change go away, there wouldn't be any coral reefs in twenty or thirty years just because if we remove all the fish then, then the seaweeds grow over the corals and kill them and they get sick of disease and they disappear for different reasons. [14;19;49;17] So there is the excess nutrients from all that fertilizer and, and human waste. Um, there's a huge human waste problem in the Florida Keys. There's this, this, uh, this problem of fishing. There's this problem of climate change. [14;20;06;23] Uh, it looks grim for coral reefs, uh, and, and, um, they have disappeared from many places.
INTERVIEWER
And why should we care about coral reefs?
JEREMY JACKSON
[14;20;17;05] Well, if you lived in the state of Florida, if you were the Governor of Florida you'd care because the Florida, the coral reefs in the Florida Keys are worth billions of dollars a year. [14;20;24;26] Um, if you lived in Thailand and you had the tsunami and your coral reefs were all dead and your, and your mangroves were dead, uh, then all the people along that area of the coast were toast, whereas the people who lived behind big mangroves [HAND SLAP] and coral reefs, they, they absorbed the shock of the, of the wave and, and, and the damage was much less. Um, and they -
INTERVIEWER
[OVERLAP] Do they have coral reefs? What, what kind of [UNCLEAR] What, what are we talking about in terms of the damage that, that has --
JEREMY JACKSON
[14;20;55;17] [OVERLAP] Well, we're, you know, it depends on whether you only care about yourself or whether you have some sort of sense that there is a, a wholeness to the world and, and that it makes you feel good to know that there are these beautiful places. [14;21;10;21] I mean, I study coral reefs because I, um, was moved as a child by the beauty that I saw and the fascination of it. I, I fully recognize that a lot of people who have never experienced maybe don't share that point of view. Um, economically, they're pretty big. [14;21;28;21] They're not as big as fisheries but they're pretty big. Certainly to the people of Florida they're a huge issue, to the people of Hawaii they're a big issue. Um, to the people of the island states of the world they're everything they have. [14;21;43;13] The fisheries of coral reefs in the developing world are the major source of protein for the people of some of the most populist nations in the world. The Philippines, Indonesia - um, when those people eat protein it's most fish.
[14;22;02;09] It's not cattle or pork or, or, or sheep. So, so in, in, in those parts of the world coral reefs are a critical factor in the livelihood of hundreds of millions of people. Um, you know, we're sort of disconnected from that. And, and we don't even know where our fish comes from so what do we care? [14;22;24;27] But, but, um, and, and, you know, um, uh, we have, we're obsessed by terrorism but what we ought to be obsessed by is, is, is the kind of collapse of our societies because of the collapse of nations. And one of the major driving forces in the collapse of nations is the collapse of their natural resources. [14;22;53;28] And there are, you know, a couple of dozen nations around the world that are essentially dysfunctional, that have lost their infrastructure and in which war lords reign, like in Somalia. [14;23;10;12] And a huge component of that is the breakdown of resources and, and the poverty, poverty trap that the people, the people are in.
[14;23;19;02] And, and, and so coral reefs, for example, are, are a big factor in, in the general well being of people and the, the functioning of society in these, in these southeast Asian nations that, that, um, are not particularly well developed. [14;23;40;22] So, and, and, and the same kind of argument goes for virtually every issue of the environment. It's, I mean, I personally deeply care about bio-diversity and it means something to me. But from a strictly human welfare point of view, the breakdown of our natural resources is not something that we can easily fix. [14;24;05;02] It's, it's, it's, you know, it's like the nursery rhyme of Humpty Dumpty, who, who had his great fall and, and all the king's horses and king's men couldn't put him back together again. We're really good at breaking ecosystems. We don't have a clue, really, of how to put back together a coral reef. [14;24;26;01] Uh, we don't even know how to put back together a, a, a salt marsh and yet we still allow new developments to destroy one and say they'll restore another one down the way. So, um, so the implications of all this are, are really big.
INTERVIEWER
[14;24;43;22] This is a, you know, just an ignorant question, but you talked about coral reefs and fish in the same breath. And I'm still looking, if you can just explain what the relationship between coral reefs are to fish and why, you know, if you could, if you destroy a coral reef it could mean that you destroy your, your protein source. [CLEARS THROAT]
JEREMY JACKSON
[14;25;03;01] Well, because, um, fish have very complicated, uh, they, they, the relationship between, between coral reef as a habitat and the fish and lobster that we like to eat is that the coral reef provides the home for the fish and the lobster. [14;25;24;10] And, uh, the life cycles of organisms in the ocean are, are much more complicated than most animals that live on the land, although insects approximate it in, in some cases. The, the, the typical fish, um, or say, lobster, um, releases eggs and sperm just into the open ocean. [14;25;46;04] They, they fertilize by chance, uh, although there are very elaborate mechanisms to, to have them sort of get together. To increase the chance of that the fertilized egg grows up into, uh, what we call a larva. [14;26;01;08] It floats around in the ocean for varying lengths of time, feeding or not feeding. It's, there are lots of details that don't really matter. And then they have to settle down into a, a habitat, which is the right place to live. [14;26;13;28] It's sort of like looking for a new apartment in a, in a different city. And, and, and, you know, we choose our apartment based on how much money we can afford to pay for the rent and what kind of neighborhood we'd like to live in.
[14;26;26;11] Well, it's the same for these organisms, except it's much more severe because they won't, they won't survive at all unless they find, um, [CLEARS THROAT] a place with the right cues for the larva to know I should settle here, because they don't exactly have brains and they're not thinking about the address. [14;26;42;23] And so, so there are these, these cues that determine whether or not they'll settle. Coral won't settle unless there's a particular kind of, of what we call calcareous algae growing all over, that they're, they're sort of programmed to say, Ah, this is a good place. I'm going to settle down here. [14;27;02;14] Lobsters do that, fish do that. Lots of reef fish float around for six months or a, a year in the water. If, when they, they come down and they settle as tiny little things, they -- um, a, a, a, uh, a quarter of an inch long, a half an inch long - they're, uh, they're sort of sitting ducks for bigger fish, right? And big fish eat little fish. [14;27;26;15] And so, uh, they start their life out very neurotic and, and, and hiding in little places to escape from predators. Um, the corals provide those little places to hide.
[14;27;37;04] Um, [CLEARS THROAT] as they grow bigger they change their behavior. They change their diet, they move on to different things. So if we lose coral, uh, reefs we lose the habitat for a vast array of the organisms that mean something to us. [14;27;53;19] If we lose mangroves -- it turns out that a lot of the fish we like to eat start out as babies in mangroves, then move to the, the sea grass meadows that are sort of offshore from them and then eventually end up on the coral reefs. [14;28;09;22] And so, um, you know, it's not just the coral reef. It's also these other associated environments that are critical to different life stages. Shrimp are utterly dependent on sea grass beds in tropical shrimp, in, in these kinds of areas. [14;28;26;12] When the sea grasses of Florida Bay died the shrimp were, were gone, you know, for - It was very bad years for shrimp. So, so, um, the, the habitat for organisms is, is, is a critical factor in their development and, uh, there have now been some very elegant studies that have shown that in places where the corals died because of bleaching or disease or, uh, overgrowth by algae because of over fishing - it doesn't matter why they died - in places where they have died on a massive scale and have been overgrown by algae the abundance of fish drops precipitously. [14;29;12;00] In places, not because of fishing, but because the fish don't like it and they leave.
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END TAPE 109.