06:30:00:00, Pan across college campus. Past various campus-types, Dover Boys on various goofy bicycles, Girl on balcony waves like mechanical clock, Girl goes down stairs, Girl rides on bicycle built for three with Dover Boy, Man shoots pool in cloud of smoke (funny,"Drat and double drat"), Villain holds up picture of his love as he scorns Dover Boys, Villain hangs picture of girl over head of muscle man picture, Villain takes rapid succession of drinks at bar. (Great, funny), Dover Boys pass on goofy bicycles. Goofy sailor passes, Curtain falls on Villain, Girl plays hide and go seek with goofy Dover Boys, Dover Boys in various hiding places. "Over here", Dover Boys rapidly switch hiding places, Girl at tree, counts in game of Hide and Seek, Dover Boys in town run frantically from door to door, Entrance to saloon, Loud talking villain ducks out of saloon, Villain drops suit of clothes over head to dress as driver, Villain cranks up old car, drives off, Villain in old car drives on road, Villain grabs girl and the tree she's holding, Villain reads book. "How to remove lady from tree.", Villain in car drives with girl. "Help, save me", Dover Boys spring into action, Goofy sailor passes, Villain car drives wildly up mountain road, Villain takes girl to remote cabin, Girl pounds on locked door, throws villain across room, Boy scout looks in window with telescope, Scout uses flags to signal to scout just a few feet away, Scout runs into telegraph office, Messenger pulls up to saloon on bicycle, Messenger reads message. "Help!!!!", Dover boys in bicycles race to the scene, up mountain road, Villain thrown across room, calls for help, Dover boys arrive at cabin, sing son, break down door, Dover boys beat up on villain, Girl walks off with goofy sailor

EXPERTS TRY TO SAVE A RARE TEXAS ENDANGERED PLANT SPECIES IN THE SAN MARCOS RIVER

1958 UNIVERSAL NEWSREEL 3

<p><b>--SUPERS</b>--</p>\n<p>Friday </p>\n<p>Miami Beach, FL </p>\n<p></p>\n<p><b>--LEAD IN</b>--</p>\n<p>ONE PERSON WAS KILLED AND ANOTHER INJURED FOLLOWING A SHOOTING ON MIAMI BEACH FRIDAY NIGHT. </p>\n<p><b>--VO SCRIPT</b>--</p>\n<p>STEVE WILDING CAPTURED THIS VIDEO FROM HIS THIRD-STORY WINDOW AT THE BEACON HOTEL. </p>\n<p>YOU CAN HEAR AT LEAST FIVE GUNSHOTS...AND SEE PEOPLE START TO RUN. </p>\n<p>MIAMI POLICE SAY VIOLENCE BROKE OUT IN THE POPULAR SOUTH BEACH AREA AMID BOTH SAINT PATRICK'S DAY FESTIVITIES AND SPRING BREAK CELEBRATIONS. </p>\n<p>ONE PERSON WAS ARRESTED IN CONNECTION TO THE SHOOTING. </p>\n<p>POLICE FOUND FOUR GUNS AT THE SCENE. </p>\n<p><b>--TAG</b>--</p>\n<p>POLICE SAY THAT WAS AN ISOLATED INCIDENT... </p>\n<p>BUT AFTER ANOTHER DEADLY SHOOTING ON SUNDAY, THE CITY OF MIAMI BEACH ISSUED A CURFEW. </p>\n<p>IT WAS IN PLACE FROM MIDNIGHT MONDAY TO 6 A-M.</p>\n<p>MORE RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY COMING... AS MORE TOURISTS ARRIVE FOR SPRING BREAK. </p>\n<p><b>-----END-----CNN.SCRIPT-----</b></p>\n<p></p>\n<p><b>--KEYWORD TAGS--</b></p>\n<p>MIAMI BEACH SHOOTING SPRING BREAK GUN FLORIDA CURFEW </p>\n<p></p>

WILD WEDNESDAY, HOSTED BY ANDY GURY. "I WANNA HAVE SOME FUN" (SAMANTHA FOX) "SPRING LOVE" (THE COVER GIRLS) ROLL CALL, WHAT'S THE WILDEST THING YOU'VE EVER DONE? "MORE THAN YOU KNOW" (MARTIKA) "ELECTRIC YOUTH" (DEBBIE GIBSON) ANDY GURY IN DANCE CLASS MISTY WITH MAKEUP TIPS FROM MAYBELLINE "THE LOOK" (ROXETTE) "RADIO ROMANCE" (TIFFANY) "BREAK 4 LOVE" (RAZE) "THE BREAKS" (KURTIS BLOW) "JUST COOLIN'" (LEVERT) TEEN TALK JODY WATLEY - REAL LOVE (MUSIC VIDEO) "PARADISE CITY" (GUNS-N-ROSES) PLAY-BY-PLAY WITH EDDIE O'NEIL "DREAMIN'" (VANESSA WILLIAMS) "EXPRESS YOURSELF" (MADONNA) "SPRING LOVE" (STEVIE B)

MIKE VON FREMD ABC CS ON THE CONTROVERSY OVER WHETHER TO HAVE ROWDY SPRING BREAKERS COME BACK TO FORT LAUDERDALE. 17:28:45 GV OF ROWDY SPRING BREAKERS CAVORTING IN WILD ABANDON. GV OF A QUIET BEACH. MTV HOSTS A SCANDALOUS BATHING SUIT CONTEST. SOUNDBITES FROM SPRING BREAKERS, A POLICEMAN AND A CASH STARVED RESORT OWNER. CI: CONTESTS: BATHING SUIT. INDUSTRIES: TOURISM, FLORIDA.

NAME: AUS SNOW 20081123I TAPE: EF08/1178 IN_TIME: 10:38:14:13 DURATION: 00:01:27:15 SOURCES: AuBC DATELINE: Various, 23 Nov 2008 RESTRICTIONS: No Access Australia SHOTLIST Thredbo, Snowy Mountains, New South Wales 1. Wide of snow-covered houses 2. Cars covered in snow 3. Man brushing snow off car 4. SOUNDBITE (English) Unidentified resident: "Pretty unexpected." 5. SOUNDBITE (English) Unidentified resident: "Well (I was) supposed to be going to go and have a game of golf today, but this is the best dump of snow that we've had all year." 6. Various of truck removing snow from road 7. Man shovelling snow from steps 8. SOUNDBITE (English) Unidentified resident: "It's a nuisance, it's a lovely day, sun will be out this afternoon, it'll freeze overnight and I'll slip over walking home tonight from the pub." 9. Man clearing snow from car roof 10. Various of cars on road in snow Blue Mountains, New South Wales 11. Two women having snow fight 12. Fallen tree being cut in half by SES (State Emergency Service) volunteer 13. Two SES volunteers on roof broken by fallen tree 14. Interior of house, tilt-down from damaged roof 15. SES volunteer breaking up fallen tree 16. SOUNDBITE (English) Barry Sutcliffe, Blue Mountains resident: "I think I'm lucky to be alive really." 17. Snow covered field 18. Snow on fence 19. Snow on road Brindabella Mountains, Australian Capital Territory 20. Family walking dog 21. Various of snow fight and close of child with snow ball Thredbo, Snowy Mountains, New South Wales 22. Wide of Thredbo village 23. Snow-covered bench 24. Long shot of snowboarder with arms up in air 25. Tight of house and wide houses and road, snow falling ++MUTE++ 26. Playground ++MUTE++ 27. Car covered with snow ++MUTE++ STORYLINE The Australian ski fields have recorded one of their best snow falls of the year - just a week before the Australian summer. The unseasonal spring snow fall caught the Alpine regions by surprise. Residents thinking about a game of golf were reaching for their skis and snowboards. It was also back to clearing the roads months after the official snow season had ended. In the Blue Mountains, a light dusting of snow also brought residents out on to the streets. But the strange weather included wild winds that nearly brought Blue Mountains resident Barry Sutcliffe to grief. Sutcliffe woke up to an avalanche of tiles falling on his chest, after a tree crashed on to his house. He survived unscathed, and for most people the unexpected snow was a nice surprise. The weekend cold snap also provided good rainfall across south-eastern Australia.

HOUSE IS SCHEDULED TO VOTE ON A PLAN WHICH EXTENDS 75 MILLION DOLLARS IN TAX BREAKS OVER THE NEXT 30 YEARS TO BASEBALL TEAMS WHO HOLD SPRING TRAINING IN FLORIDA.

Charles Gatewood's BIZARRE, WEIRD WACKY WILD STUFF AS IN FETISHISTS, MEN IN DRAG, THOSE WILD TATTOOS & PIERCINGS, MARDI GRAS AND SO ON LATE 80s; Montage of overweight dancer, cultish naked people with body paint, punk kids kicking mock police car, dykes on bikes; Nearly naked blue man in parade, gay pride parade, butch women dancing, Man hitting motorcycle with sledgehammer, chick with tape over nipples dancing in club, punk kid w/spiked hair, nose ring, tattoos, Tattooed sword swallower, person holding pet python. Interviews cool drag queens Rock band with cool 60s style backdrop, tightrope walking rat, man under arrest, nude neon signs, woman outside strip club Performance artist wearing red dress, fetishist nanny dominatrix puts clips on woman's nipples; Funny talking head woman speaking seriously. NYC hippies etc on sidewalk, airhead host Speakers at marijuana legalization rally. Men take up the chant, "The Pope smokes dope!". Man covered in tribal tattoos in shower, woman dancing at nightclub Dancing Coke cans and their ilk, adult skater doing tricks, rock band, people dancing on sidewalk, escape artist street performer; Halloween masquerade party lots of drag queens good costumes including McDonalds Nazis! Exposed boobs & creepy performance artists Human vampire cutting mans throat and drinking the blood, another Pope smokes dope guy!; Daytona Beach biker rally...same W.T.s from 'Weird Biker Week'...motorcycle with U.S. flag, muddy chick flashing people Motorcycles in velodrome thing defying gravity, chick wiggling her butt, White Power & swastika t-shirt, Gap-toothed woman playing with anatomically correct doll; Bikers dancing, pair of really overweight bikers Bikers actually riding motorcycles, going into bar...woman shows ugly unicorn tattoo on her breast, chicks in bar Handmade 'Cold Beer' sign.'No Weapons, No Colors'; Swastika baseball cap! Big-tough-swastika-hat-man says he's on the yellow brick road...off to see the wizard...think he's a friend of Dorothy? Spring Break of the later 1980s...dancing, bikinis, drinking games...there's a Spuds Mackenzie, Drunk blonde guy hanging with the only black guy around; Raft relay race across pool...one guy loses his trunks...wet t-shirt contest but being 1987 its cropped tees, dancing Mardi Gras...where else but New Orleans...street performers, costumes including: white trash! That's a good one; Gay couple wearing silly leather chaps & doodads, er, adult venue like a strip club, street performer, dancing, Gumby costume That's a good one- man wearing boobs flashes camera, chick with boobs hanging out, street musicians, drag queen mermaid Bondage nut wearing handcuffs, male flasher costume, masochist getting whipped, costumes amusing and with gay & pagan elements; Fantastic street performers break dancing, cool Old World street musicians, black man dancing, bare chested woman on balcony; Cajun street musicians, gay men kiss (not romantically, just friends), nuns dancing with the devil, another gap-toothed chick; Guys holding up squirting dildo! San Francisco Gay Pride rally, Dykes on Bikes! topless woman with body paint dancing not crude; Lesbian chick orgasming loudly for tourists, man talking into a dildo like its a microphone, women dancing in Gay Pride parade; Man playing harmonica pretty good, men & women wearing whatever you call it...bondage wear, neo-Pagans doing this & that...; OM tattoo, great contrast between early 90s trendsetter and the host...dressed up as a 1985 interpretation of 'punk rocker'; Male host (who is clearly more intelligent than the female host) shows off a tattoo on his butt cheek..and trick safety pin in nose; Noise musicians...accompanied by a tortured clarinet...tattoos & piercings galore, body painting, fire eater, Burning Man stuff; More tattoos & piercings, people in tattoo parlor going under the gun, the Bangles! Trio of women with colorful dyed hair CU man getting his nose pierced thru the septum! He wipes away the tears...Pan appreciative audience in club Chicks playfully wrestling, nudes with body paint, and...for want of space - Burning Man type stuff & Mardi Gras stuff...ending with some drunken bikers singing the national anthem...play ball! Charles Gatewood (November 8, 1942 – April 28, 2016) was an American photographer, writer, videographer, artist and educator, who lived and worked in San Francisco, California from 1987. California. From 1998 to 2010, he was a photographer for Skin and Ink magazine. During this period, Gatewood produced over thirty documentary videos about body modification, fetish fashion and other alternative interests. His San Francisco period subjects include the Folsom Street Fair (15 times), Dadafest (4 times) and Burning Man (4 times). Gatewood also photographed a number of nude studies during this period.

<p><pi><b>This package/segment contains third party material. Unless otherwise noted, this material may only be used within this package/segment.</b></pi></p>\n<p></p>\n<p><b>***Warning: This item contains profanity that has been bleeped.***</b></p>\n<p></p>\n<p><b>Supers/Fonts: </b></p>\n<p></p>\n<p><b>Story Location: </b> Spring</p>\n<p></p>\n<p><b>State/Province: </b> Texas</p>\n<p></p>\n<p><b>Shot Date: </b> 01/29/2024</p>\n<p> KTRK;Cellphone from Courtney Hawk</p>\n<p></p>\n<p><b>URL: </b> https://abc13.com/spring-texas-deer-burglar-holly-walk-lane-harris-county-sheriffs-office-livestock-unit/14370962/</p>\n<p></p>\n<p><b>Notes and Restrictions: </b></p>\n<p></p>\n<p><b>Newsource Notes: </b></p>\n<p></p>\n<p><b>Story Description: </b></p>\n<p>Elements:</p>\n<p>cellphone video of deer in home, SOTs from homeowner, VO of home, walk and talk with homeowner, </p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p>Wire/StoryDescription:</p>\n<p>The Harris County Precinct 4 Constable's Office took a deer into custody on Sunday and released it after the animal broke into a home in Spring.</p>\n<p></p>\n<p>The homeowner said the deer not only broke in but it stayed overnight.</p>\n<p></p>\n<p>"I just walked in the house here and opened my pantry. I opened my door, and right here, kind of past where my stove is, was a deer just staring at me," Courtney Hawk said, recalling what happened after coming home from spending the night at her boyfriend's.</p>\n<p></p>\n<p>After surveying her home, she realized the deer had gone through one of the front windows.</p>\n<p></p>\n<p>"He just made himself an entrance. He 'Kool-Aid manned' right through my front window," Hawk said.</p>\n<p></p>\n<p>She came to find out that her neighbors witnessed the breaking and entering.</p>\n<p></p>\n<p>Hawk said in the deer's defense, she was told a buck was chasing it.</p>\n<p></p>\n<p>"I came back around 5 p.m. Sunday evening, so it was almost a full 24 hours that he was just moving in," Hawk said.</p>\n<p></p>\n<p>The deer's hard launch into the home left him injured and bleeding, making it pretty easy for Hawk to tell where he had been. Blood stains were everywhere, from the floor to the wall to the couch.</p>\n<p></p>\n<p>Precinct 4 deputies tried to get the deer to leave on its own.</p>\n<p></p>\n<p>Hawk said the deer ran into the bathroom during the first attempt. Then, deputies tried to knock on the window to scare it out of the home, but she said that agitated the deer.</p>\n<p></p>\n<p>Hawk said they had to call in the Harris County Sheriff's Office livestock unit.</p>\n<p></p>\n<p>The game plan, according to Hawk, was to shoot the deer with a tranquilizer gun.</p>\n<p></p>\n<p>"She (deputy with livestock unit) said she came around this angle and just saw the tail end of the deer sticking out right here, and the deer was just staring at itself in the mirror. And so, she had a good shot of the hind end and gave him a nice little dose of sleepy juice," Hawk said.</p>\n<p></p>\n<p>A video taken on Hawk's cellphone showed the moment when the deer's wild weekend at her home came to an end.</p>\n<p></p>\n<p>Hawk said the deer was given an antidote to reverse the tranquilizer. Then, he was set free.</p>\n<p></p>\n<p>He destroyed some property, but Hawk said she won't be pressing charges.</p>\n<p></p>\n<p>"All things considered, I think the damage could have been worse," Hawk said.</p>\n<p></p>\n<p>Hawk added that she's choosing to find the humor in all of it.</p>\n<p></p>\n<p>For the interview on Monday, she wore a shirt that read, "It is what it is, but it's not great."</p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p>Station Notes/Scripts:</p>\n<p>ANCHOR INTRO:</p>\n<p></p>\n<p>A deer was taken into precinct constable 4 custody Sunday and released after breaking into a home in spring.</p>\n<p></p>\n<p>The homeowner says the deer not only broke in but he actually stayed overnight.</p>\n<p></p>\n<p>ABC 13s Alex Bozarjian is joining us live outside the scene of the crime with the story---alex?</p>\n<p></p>\n<p>ALEX LIVE:</p>\n<p></p>\n<p>According to Courtney Hawk's neighbors the deer didn't leap through her window for no reason.</p>\n<p></p>\n<p>She says they saw the deer being chased by a buck and he was simply running for his life.</p>\n<p></p>\n<p>if you know anything about deer they can't tell the difference between a window and open entry way.</p>\n<p></p>\n<p>So Hawks advice to everyone moving forward....keep your blinds closed.</p>\n<p></p>\n<p>Super:</p>\n<p></p>\n<p>Courtney Hawk/homeowner</p>\n<p></p>\n<p>PKG:</p>\n<p></p>\n<p>(17:13:34)</p>\n<p></p>\n<p>"I just walked in the house here and opened my pantry I opened my door and right here kind of past where my stove is was a deer just staring at me."</p>\n<p></p>\n<p>Nats: ahhhhhh</p>\n<p></p>\n<p>A raw unfiltered reaction from Courtney Hawk who was coming home from spending the night at her boyfriend's.</p>\n<p></p>\n<p>Her first thought? how in the world did this guy get in here.</p>\n<p></p>\n<p>(17:15:20)</p>\n<p></p>\n<p>"he just made himself an entrancehe Kool-Aid manned right through my front window."</p>\n<p></p>\n<p>Come to find out----neighbors witnessed the breaking and entering.</p>\n<p></p>\n<p>But Hawk says in the deer's defense---she was told he was being chased by a buck.</p>\n<p></p>\n<p>(17:17:41)</p>\n<p></p>\n<p>"I came back around 5 pm Sunday evening so it was almost a full 24 hours that he was just moving in."</p>\n<p></p>\n<p>The deer's hard launch into the home left him injured and bleeding.</p>\n<p></p>\n<p>It made it pretty easy for Hawk to tell where he had been.</p>\n<p></p>\n<p>Nats: deer fumbling about</p>\n<p></p>\n<p>Constables from precint 4 tried to get the deer to leave on his own but those attempts failed.</p>\n<p></p>\n<p>Hawk says they had to call in the harris county sheriff's livestock unit.</p>\n<p></p>\n<p>Nats: live stock unit walking in</p>\n<p></p>\n<p>The game plan according to hawk was to shoot the deer with a tranquilizer gun.</p>\n<p></p>\n<p>(17:27:17)</p>\n<p></p>\n<p>"she said she came around this angle and just saw the tail end of the deer sticking out right here and the deer was just staring at itself in the mirror and so she had a good shot of the hind end and gave him a nice little dose of sleepy juice."</p>\n<p></p>\n<p>And just like that the deer's wild weekend at hawk's came to an end.</p>\n<p></p>\n<p>Nats: try not to bonk his head</p>\n<p></p>\n<p>Hawk says the deer was given an antidote to reverse the tranquilizer.</p>\n<p></p>\n<p>Then he was set free.</p>\n<p></p>\n<p>he did destroy some property but Hawk says she wont be pressing charges.</p>\n<p></p>\n<p>(17:29:03)</p>\n<p></p>\n<p>"all things considered I think the damage could have been worse."</p>\n<p></p>\n<p>Hawk says she's choosing to find the humor in all of it.</p>\n<p></p>\n<p>(17:29:02)</p>\n<p></p>\n<p>Nats: feel like you're wearing the perfect shirt----"it is what is but its not great."</p>\n<p></p>\n<p>"its not great"</p>\n<p></p>\n<p>In Spring Im alex bozarjian abc</p>\n<p></p>\n<p><b>--SUPERS</b>--</p>\n<p></p>\n<p><b>Story Location: </b> Spring</p>\n<p></p>\n<p><b>State/Province: </b> Texas</p>\n<p></p>\n<p><b>Shot Date: </b> 01/29/2024</p>\n<p> KTRK;Cellphone from Courtney Hawk</p>\n<p></p>\n<p><b>--LEAD IN</b>--</p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p><b>--REPORTER PKG-AS FOLLOWS</b>--</p>\n<p></p>\n<p><b>--TAG</b>--</p>\n<p><b>-----END-----CNN.SCRIPT-----</b></p>\n<p></p>\n<p><b>--KEYWORD TAGS--</b></p>\n<p></p>

UNIVERSAL NEWSREELS

THE LID IS OFF

GOOD FILE OR B-ROLL OF KIDS PARYTING IN DAYTONA BEACH, FLORIDA IN 1990 FOR SPRING BREAK. SHOWS SWIMSUITS AND HAIRSTYLES OF THE TIME.

[TAPE 4] [OFF CAMERA COMMENTS] BILL BLAKEMORE [04;00;36;24] To start, just say your name and how to spell it so it's on there for the transcriber. ANTHONY WESTERLING Anthony Westerling, ANTHONY WESTERLING. [OFF CAMERA COMMENTS] BILL BLAKEMORE [04;00;58;19] And um, and your title here. ANTHONY WESTERLING I'm an assistant project scientist. BILL BLAKEMORE And your specialty? ANTHONY WESTERLING [04;01;04;13] Wildfire and climate. BILL BLAKEMORE Wildfire and climate? ANTHONY WESTERLING Yeah. BILL BLAKEMORE [04;01;07;16] OK, well, the basic question I have is, we're doing a series about global warming and its impacts. What can you tell us about the impact of global warming on the wildfire situation? ANTHONY WESTERLING [04;01;17;11] Well, you know, California in particular has a very diverse climate and a very diverse ecosystem, so there's a lot of variety here. That means that no one story is going to tell you about the whole state. But there are two common elements that are true for wildfire everywhere, and that's, is there enough fuel to burn? You have continuous fuel, you can get a fire that spreads to a large size. [04:01:40:07] And the other is, is the fuel dry enough to burn? So climate change effects both of those things. And one, one aspect is changes in precipitation and in temperature during the growing season effect the moisture available to grow vegetation that can later burn. [04:01:56:20] And the other thing is, temperature during the, the, uh, fire season itself, so during the summer typically, uh, drives wildfire risks. So the hotter it is the more likely it is to burn in some places, not in others. So, just to give you some examples, uh, if you're out in the desert here east of San Diego, you could see a place where there's very sparse vegetation, and normally it might not be able to carry a fire to a large size in the vegetation because it's not continuous enough. [04:02:28:06] But, um, if you get enough precipitation, for example, you can get a lot of grass that will grow, and cure out, and dry out during the, the summer, and, and then you can get a large fire. [04:02:37:13] You go up to some place like Yosemite and Sequoia, and you have these pine forests, they're really drive, the wildfire risks in places like that are really driven by temperature in particular. [04;02;51;06] Uh, and as you go up in elevation, snow is very important. If you melt the snow earlier in the year, or if you get less snow and more rain in the wintertime you get a much longer dry season during the summer, and that means you get a lot more opportunities for fires to burn, you have a longer time when vegetation can dry out. [04:03:10:21] And so, we're already seeing this to some extent around the west. We've had tremendous increases in forest fire risks, and forest. [OFF CAMERA COMMENTS] BILL BLAKEMORE [04:03:25:02] Before you pick up with we're already seeing this around the west, I want to ask a point just to finish completing the dots. If it is true that, that global warming means, is often bringing us a lot more rain early in the growing season and a lot more drying out later. OK, ready? OK, so to complete the dot what is, what is, uh, the dots, what is, what is global warming and climate change doing to early rains and later drying? ANTHONY WESTERLING [04;03;50;16] Well, you know, it varies a lot in terms of precipitation. If you look at a broad range of these models, uh, you'll see that they're all broadly in agreement in terms of warmer future for, for the western United States. Now some of them maybe are warmer than others, but they all have, are in the same direction, and it's not that huge a spread in temperature. [04:04:12:16] But, when you look at precipitation it's a very different story, a lot of uncertainty about precipitation. So, some models are much dryer in, in a place like southern California, and others are much wetter in terms of how much precipitation you're going to get. [04;04;28;00] That part's really un-, unpredictable at this point. We can't say what's going to happen with precipitation. And, and so fire regimes, fire risks like we have here in southern California that are driven both by temperature and a lot of antecedent precipitation are very uncertain, we don't know, uh, whether it would increase or decrease under climate change, because we don't know how wet it's going to be. [04;04;50;21] But, if you look at some place like northern California, um, in the Sierra's, the coast ranges, places like that, is really strongly driven by temperature, and dry years tend to be both warmer and less precipitation. And, and so you get a really big impact from climate change in all the models that we've looked at in northern California, for example. BILL BLAKEMORE [04:05:13:21] So, so it's true in some places that, that global warming means that you're getting heavier rains early in the year when it's growing, and much hotter and dryer later in some places- ANTHONY WESTERLING You know, I'm not the person to ask. BILL BLAKEMORE [04:05:23:16] OK, OK fine. OK, good. So what have your projections, what are your, give us a sense of quantification of, of how much worse you're seeing- ANTHONY WESTERLING [04:05:34:29] Well what about what, what we're already seeing, and then we'll talk about- BILL BLAKEMORE Yeah, yeah, go- ANTHONY WESTERLING .projections. BILL BLAKEMORE What you're already seeing, In other words it's already, there's- ANTHONY WESTERLING [04;05;38;06] Yes. So, looking at the western United States, there's just been a tremendous increase in the frequency of large dangerous forest fires. And it's really been concentrated at sort of mid-elevations, or like around seven thousand feet in elevation, and uh, the worst place in terms of the biggest increase has been the northern Rockies. [04:05:57:13] And then the second after that is, is California in the Sierra Nevadas and the coast ranges of the northern California coast. [OFF CAMERA COMMENTS] ANTHONY WESTERLING [04;06;13;08] OK, so the worst, uh, the worst that we've seen so far, the biggest increase has been in the northern Rockies, concentrated around seven thousand feet in elevation. And after that comes California, uh, especially the Sierras and the coast ranges along the north coast. [04:06:30:10] Uh, it's been a tremendous increase in both places, and it, and those, those two account for, for most of the changes in the west. There's been a lot of discussion about the effects of, of um, a century of land management on fire risks, because when you suppress fires for a long time in some places you get an increased fuel load, you get more trees growing close together, you get more shrubs and things like that, and it can carry fire to a large size. [04:06:59:08] But, uh, that effect is completely overwhelmed by, by the temperature signal that we're seeing. What's happening is that the snow is melting earlier in the year on a, at very regular intervals now, and uh, we're getting much longer fire seasons, it dries out much more than before, and we just get tremendous increase in, uh, in the number of large wildfires in the mountains of the west. BILL BLAKEMORE [04:07:26:24] And you can, and you can just complete the circle there for us with global warming, about why, why it appears- ANTHONY WESTERLING [04;07;32;02] So, if this is, you know, if you ask any climatologist, they're going, they're not going to be able to tell you what, were these temperature increases, these early springs driven by climate change or not, just like they can't say any specific storm was caused by climate change. [04;07;05;22] But, if you think about it as an analog for the future, it tells us that we're going to have much greater fire risks, we're going to have a lot more large forest fires tan we do right now. BILL BLAKEMORE [04;07;58;26] Because the snow melts out sooner? ANTHONY WESTERLING Because the snow melts out sooner it, you have both a longer dry season, that means that, that the vegetation is not going to be buffered by the moisture in the snows and then in the soils. [04:08:11:28] And then subsequently it also means that, that you have just a longer time when an ignition can cause a fire. So, you get a much longer fire season, and much more intense. BILL BLAKEMORE And for the public who's a little bit confused about fires, wildfires, they're good, they're bad, they replenish the earth, they don't replenish the earth. We saw Yosemite come back, etc., etc. ANTHONY WESTERLING [04;08;32;08] Well, if you have a, a system that's adapted to, say, burning every fifty years, or burning every hundred years, and you start burning it ever ten years, you're going to completely change the character of that ecosystem, it's not going to be this iconic forest like you have now, it'll be something else. BILL BLAKEMORE [04:08:49:29] And what about the impact on human development? ANTHONY WESTERLING [04;08;51;11] Well, the biggest problem in California, the biggest challenge for the state going forward is that some of our fastest growing areas in terms of population and development are in the path of what we see, where we see some of the biggest increases in fire risks in the future. And so places that account for a very small percentage of the state's population now, uh, really are driving the increase in, in property losses in the state from wildfire. [04:09:19:18] And those are the places that are going to have the biggest increases in fire frequency in future, uh, driven by temperature increases from climate change. BILL BLAKEMORE [0:11:26:27] I didn't quite follow that. Why are they driving it? I mean they didn't, you said the places that have the least population.? ANTHONY WESTERLING [04;09;32;06] OK, so they have, presently they account for a small percentage of the state's population, but they're the fastest growing, and, and they're- BILL BLAKEMORE Start that from the beginning. When you say "they" you're talking about what? ANTHONY WESTERLING [04;09;42;06] So the Sierra, um, the Sierra, Sierra Nevada foothills, and sort of the expanding ring of wild and urban interface around the core, you know, Bay Area metropolitan area in northern California, very rapidly growing populations, rapidly growing development. And it's dispersed around its edges, so you're sprinkling expensive homes in places that like to burn. [04:10:07:19] And they're going to burn even more when you increase the temperature. And the damages from. The vulnerability to the state's economy from building another apartment building in San Diego is negligible, whereas if you build another house out in the Sierra foothills, you're dramatically increasing the state's economic vulnerability to climate change impacts from, through wildfire. Is that.? BILL BLAKEMORE [04;10;31;27] Exactly, helping us understand the economic impact of wildfires is a very interesting point. ANTHONY WESTERLING Right. So, so part of this, this uh, future risk that, that the state is going to have to manage is, how do we control, or do we not control development in these areas? [04;10;46;28] Do we allow the wild and urban interface, that's these homes sprinkled throughout, uh, what are currently, you know, undeveloped areas, to grow? And that's a very difficult issue, because on the one hand you increase the state's vulnerability, but on the other hand that's the use that people want to make on that land, and if they have to forego that, that's also an economic impact for the state. [04:11:10:20] So either way, it's a lose/lose situation. You don't develop in those lands, or you do and you, you have much greater costs and much greater risks. BILL BLAKEMORE [04;11;19;14] So both for the wild environment, the ecosystems, and for the human environment, global warming is causing much greater likelihood of wildfires. ANTHONY WESTERLING That's right. And when you combine that with population growth and development in these currently lower density areas, uh, it, it's going to be a tremendous management problem for the state in the future. [04;11;41;09] For one thing, fire managers have very different options when there are homes and people living in an area and when there aren't, in terms of how they can manage wildfire. [04;11;50;13] They can take decisions that are more strategic, thinking about what are, what are the resources, the natural resources that they want to preserve, and what can, um, they do in terms of lighting a back fire, for example, and they'll just let one area burn and focus their resources somewhere else. [04:12:08:24] When you have a lot of homes in, in an area that's, that's prone to large wildfires, they take a very different strategy. They, they try to protect islands around development that has significant value. [04;12;21;10] And, and so you get larger fires because they have to focus their resources on protecting these little islands within the, the wildfire rather than fighting the wildfire itself. BILL BLAKEMORE [04:12:32:15] And how sure are you that it's going to keep warming? ANTHONY WESTERLING I just listen to what the climatologists tell me. BILL BLAKEMORE And what do they, and what is your assessment of what the climatologists are telling you about that? ANTHONY WESTERLING [04;12;41;21] Well, what we see on the ground is that it's already happening, it looks just like what they tell us to expect to see. So, from my own parochial point of view it sure looks like climate change to me. BILL BLAKEMORE [04:12:53:11] And what is your general expectation from your specialty of whether or not you expect it to keep going and accelerating? ANTHONY WESTERLING I'm sorry, can you rephrase that question? [LAUGHS] BILL BLAKEMORE Is this a problem, is this a problem from what you're being told and from what your general understanding is that's very likely to keep going and getting worse? ANTHONY WESTERLING [04;13;09;05] Yeah, I think this will continue to get much worse. BILL BLAKEMORE Much worse? ANTHONY WESTERLING Yes. BILL BLAKEMORE I mean.? ANTHONY WESTERLING [04:13:16:24] Well because, think about it, as you move up in elevation, you'll have some place in the west that's just a little bit colder than, than the threshold where the snow would melt. OK? And so that area is very vulnerable right now. [04:13:33:18] And so when we get a warm spring right now, that area melts sooner than it would otherwise. You go uphill a little bit further and the impact is, is not so clear, because, because there's more temperature that you can use up as the temperature increases before you're going to melt the snow. Right? So, you get a very sudden response in places that are vulnerable now, that are close to the threshold where the snow's going to melt. [1:14:00:08] But there are a lot of parts of the mess that are not burning now that might burn in the future as temperatures continue to increase. And so the problems that we have in the northern Rockies around seven thousand feet in elevation, and in parts of California, may become much more common. You know, maybe they will spread to higher elevations. [04;14;17;16] Maybe we'll have a problem in the northwest where we have not had as much of a problem now because it's much wetter than it is here. BILL BLAKEMORE [04;14;22;29] So, you're also an economist? ANTHONY WESTERLING I'm also an economist. BILL BLAKEMORE You're general sense of the economic impact, therefore, from all the fires that, uh, global warming is bringing? ANTHONY WESTERLING [04:14:31:09] You know, I think that the biggest economic impact is going to be from the sort of synergistic effects, the combined effects of different things. You know, we generally tend to look at things with blinders on, we'll look at just the effects of climate change on wildfire, or just the effects on the water system. [04;14;46;27] Well, if you burn out a water shed, if you burn out, say, the west slope of the Sierra Nevadas, you have the ecological impacts, you have the impacts on, say, people's enjoyment of the, the scenery and fishing and things like that, you have the impact on people's homes, but you also are going to get more run off. It's, you know, the, the problem with climate change for water resources is that, that uh, if you get an earlier spring, you get earlier run off, and you can't manage the reservoirs to captures as much of the water as you can if it runs off later in the year. [04:15:21:24] Well, if you have a lot of fires in the slopes above that reservoir, you're going to get more erosion, you're going to get more sediment run off. That, that creates additional complications for managing these resources. You're going to have flashier run off, you know, because uh, it won't be retained by the roots in the soil because there won't be as many roots in the soil. [04:15:46:16] And, and so all of these problems we really have to get a sense of how they build on one another, and that's an area that has not been sufficiently explored yet. BILL BLAKEMORE [04;15;55;08] And if the temperature and the carbon keep going up and up and up.? ANTHONY WESTERLING [04:15:59:29] We'll keep passing thresholds where we start to see effects that we didn't anticipate, or that, that, you know, occur rather suddenly rather than sort of gradual changes, like the wildfire in the western United States, it really just kicked up in the mid 1980's. There was nothing going on for decades, and then, and then just the next year it was a different system entirely, and it's been like that for almost twenty years now. [OFF CAMERA COMMENTS] BILL BLAKEMORE [04;16;43;13] So fire and carbon? ANTHONY WESTERLING OK, so I can't remember the exact number off the top of my head, I can give it to you later. BILL BLAKEMORE Just your- ANTHONY WESTERLING Something in the order of twenty to forty percent of the carbon uptake in the United States is potentially occurring in these mountain forest of the western United States. [04:17:03:10] And when people talk about, um, you know, the growth of forests in North America, they usually think of the east coast and, and southern piedmont as places that have, uh, increased forest cover since the last turn of the century, the 1900's. but, and maybe that hasn't occurred to the same degree here in the western United States, I'm not certain about that. [04:17:24:00] But, but what we do know is that the western United States, the mountain ecosystems are an enormous carbon pool, and if we start releasing that carbon because we are increasing temperatures and therefore burning more regularly, we're going to release a lot of carbon that's currently stored in these forests, and that's going to be a positive feedback, it's going to exacerbate the, the whole problem with climate change. BILL BLAKEMORE [04:17:48:01] Right. Did you hear that all right? It's a very important thing he just said. [OFF CAMERA COMMENTS] ANTHONY WESTERLING [04;18;02;02] The percentage of carbon uptake accounted for by western mountain forests for the United States is something like on the order of twenty to forty percent, and that ecosystem, the western mountain forests in the United States are an enormous carbon pool. They're storing carbon in the trees, in the, in the soils, and as we raise temperatures, uh, a couple of things happen. [04:18:33:22] And a colleague of mine, David Shimmel [PH] has found that it increases the, it decreases the ability of the ecosystems to uptake carbon in the years that it's warmer, when you get a warmer spring. But it's also the case that, that uh, as you warm it up, it burns off, and, and the more frequently that it burns the more, the less carbon it's going to store, and that means a very large positive feedback on climate change where, where climate change gives you warmer temperatures, gives you more frequent fires, which gives you more carbon release from the forests and soils, which is a positive feedback to climate change. BILL BLAKEMORE [04:19:17:18] So it gives you both more carbon back into the atmosphere and less carbon taken out of it because there's less plants to take it out? ANTHONY WESTERLING And that would also be something to consider as well. You might want to ask Dave Shimmel before you, before you, you say anything that I said about him. BILL BLAKEMORE [04:19:32:24] This sounds pretty dire in the next, you're talking about something that we're going to see increasing not in a few hundred years, but increasingly in the coming decades. ANTHONY WESTERLING [04;19;40;25] Yeah, I mean, this is already something that we're seeing happen, I think. BILL BLAKEMORE So this is going to effect the life of today's toddlers by the time they're middle age. ANTHONY WESTERLING Yeah, my daughter. BILL BLAKEMORE Your daughter. You have a daughter? ANTHONY WESTERLING [04:19:54:13] Uh-huh. BILL BLAKEMORE How old? A kid? ANTHONY WESTERLING Uh, she's twenty-one months. BILL BLAKEMORE Twenty-one months old. ANTHONY WESTERLING [04;19;57;26] Yeah, and I have no idea what kind of, what kind of world she's going to inherit. BILL BLAKEMORE Are you worried about it? ANTHONY WESTERLING Of course, any rational person. BILL BLAKEMORE Scared? ANTHONY WESTERLING [04;20;14;22] Concerned. BILL BLAKEMORE What do you think is, do we have a chance of stopping it in any way, controlling it? ANTHONY WESTERLING [04;20;23;04] My own subjective opinion is that we still maybe have a window of opportunity, but it's something that has to be dealt with in this generation. If we put it off to our children, it'll be too late. That's, that's my opinion. BILL BLAKEMORE And that means drastically cutting carbon emissions? ANTHONY WESTERLING [04;20;46;27] That means drastically cut, cutting carbon emissions, yes. BILL BLAKEMORE Oh good, more good news. ANTHONY WESTERLING OK? BILL BLAKEMORE Anything else? [OFF CAMERA COMMENTS] BILL BLAKEMORE [04;21;43;19] So, so for people who live in the San Bernardino foothills, for example, if they've been listening to all kinds of voices that are still out there, credibly, about climate change, can you just add a sentence or two to tell them, and they said, why should I care that the climate is changing? ANTHONY WESTERLING [04:22:01:04] Well, they probably moved to that place because they liked it the way it is now. If you change the climate you're going to change the ecosystem, the weather, everything about the place that, that might have attracted them in the first place is going to be effected. BILL BLAKEMORE [04:22:15:24] And your not talking about a century from now. ANTHONY WESTERLING No, probably not. MAN But specifically with the wildfire threat, I mean- ANTHONY WESTERLING [04:22:24:11] Well, you know, wildfire in San Bernardino foothills, for example, San Bernardino, is a very different thing from wildfire in the Sierra Nevadas or northern coast, it's much more driven by, well it depends what kind of ecosystem you're in. You know, the coastal chaparral, for example, the shrub lands in California, uh, are really driven by Santa Anna winds, the wildfire risks there are really driven by Santa Anna winds. [04:23:52:18] And that's more of a, you know, very short term meteorological condition rather than thinking about temperature or the antecedent precipitation, and that's something that's very hard to, to understand how it might change coming out of a climate change simulation. BILL BLAKEMORE [04;23;07;06] You mean because it's possible, for example, that climate change in the San Bernardino foothills for all you know could mean more rain there for a while. ANTHONY WESTERLING It could, or it could mean less, I, it's harder to say. BILL BLAKEMORE Less rain and more fire. Right, so- ANTHONY WESTERLING [04:23:22:26] I mean, if you warm it up and you get less rain, you get less vegetation over time in a place like that, and you're going to have maybe lower fire risks, especially at lower elevations, then you might have now, because it would become more like a desert and less like it, like it is now. BILL BLAKEMORE [04;23;39;25] But we haven't, here's a question, seen many more of these fires in foothills like that, where there's suburban- ANTHONY WESTERLING Yeah, well, part of the problem is that the suburban settlement has expanded into areas that, that burn, and those fires are not at all unusual for, for this place. BILL BLAKEMORE [04;23;58;05] Right, but anything, you're saying generally from seven thousand feet up you're seeing climate change effects? ANTHONY WESTERLING [04;24;03;26] That's right, in mid to upper elevations, seeing, and it's really focused, you know, like six to eight thousand feet elevation- BILL BLAKEMORE It started in the eighties, mid-eighties? ANTHONY WESTERLING [04;24;12;27] Mid-eighties, yeah. BILL BLAKEMORE Oh, oh, important thing, was Yosemite part of that pattern? Yeah, the big Yosemite fire was in the mid eighties. ANTHONY WESTERLING [04;24;21;16] Yeah, it's all- BILL BLAKEMORE Could you just say something about, for example- ANTHONY WESTERLING [04;24;25;16] You can't say anything about one specific fire, you know. It's looking at the statistics of all of them together. BILL BLAKEMORE [04:24:30:12] Right, In other words, it's- ANTHONY WESTERLING That means I'm not going to say. [LAUGHS] BILL BLAKEMORE That's one of the semantic problems we're finding in covering this. It fits the pattern-[BREAK IN AUDIO] [OFF CAMERA COMMENTS] ANTHONY WESTERLING [04;24;44;24] Well the answer for- MAN Any time, go ahead. ANTHONY WESTERLING .for southern California would be that they do not at all fit the, a pattern that you would attribute to climate change. BILL BLAKEMORE [04:24:49:17] And that would be for the fires you're having in southern California? ANTHONY WESTERLING That's right, the uh, coastal southern California looks just like it's looked for a long time, it just, it accounts for less than one percent of the change in, in fires that we would attribute to changes in-[BREAK IN AUDIO] ..by Santa Anna wind events. BILL BLAKEMORE Right. ANTHONY WESTERLING [04;25;11;13] And, and so nothing about this system is particularly vulnerable in the short term to temperature changes, whereas at higher elevations where you get, for example in the northern Rockies you have a big area that's right at an elevation where it's just below freezing for a large part of, you know, late winter, early-[BREAK IN AUDIO] [OFF CAMERA COMMENTS] [END ANDY WESTERLING INTERVIEW] [BEGIN MAT FRATUS INTERVIEW] BILL BLAKEMORE [04:38:17:21] So what do you, what do you remember from, from around here? What was happening? MAT FRATUS Well, the day that the fire transitioned up the hill and crested over the top and immediately went down a chimney up over in this area here, and uh, the vegetation was so thick, there was huge stands of trees that had already been impacted by the bark beetle, and really nothing to stop the fire from coming down, to the point that, because this road has no exit, there's only one way in and one way out. [04;38;44;27] And we really, none of our tactics that we were using were really slowing the fire down. Uh, we essentially had to pull out of this area and just resign that these houses would just have to burn. [OFF CAMERA COMMENTS] BILL BLAKEMORE [04;39;15;08] So, tell us, tell us more about what we're looking at here, what happens, and, and what the, what the information is. MAT FRATUS [04;39;20;16] Well, this particular area is a, kind of an outskirt of Lake Arrowhead, an area known as Cedar Glen, and, and Hook Creek Road area here. Um, a lot of houses, although you can't tell now that this was actually a very densely populated area, um, because of the, the types of vegetation, because of the weather patterns that we were having, uh, the fire came through here at such a rate that everything that we had tried to do to stop it really was, for the most part, ineffective. [04;39;47;20] And you have to keep in mind that even though, uh, we have very good fire protection in this area on a normal day, we had fires burning throughout the state, so the resources we were working with were limited to start with, but the type of fire behavior we were dealing with was really unlike what most of us had seen. [04;40;02;05] I had talked to people who had been in the fire service their entire career, and not only this fire, but fires in proceeding years, because of the drought, because of the fuel conditions, they produced, uh, fire behavior, flame links, intensities that we had never really experienced before, and everything that we had to throw at it we did, and it just seemed to burn right through us. [04:40:21:02] So, we were taking a defensive posture in here, uh, for reasons of safety. We knew that we couldn't make a stand in this area and be effective. So uh, it was very difficult for a lot of us, I was born and raised in this area, and to see this entire area burn in my, in my lifetime, I've never seen a fire come through here of anything of that magnitude. [04;40;39;24] Uh, so the best we could do was try to get over one more ridge, uh, over to the next ridge over is where we finally made a stand, and uh, quite honestly, uh, as, as much as our, I think our tactics were effective ultimately what helped us win this fight was the weather change, uh, we had a low pressure come in, it actually began to rain, actually began to snow within a couple of days after this burning, and I have to wonder if that had not happened how much farther this fire would have gone, how much more devastation we would have seen. [OFF CAMERA COMMENTS] BILL BLAKEMORE [04;41;13;02] So first just say your name, your position, your title, how you spell it. MAT FRATUS OK. Mat Fratus, MAT, one T, Fratus, FRATUS, and I'm a division chief with the San Bernardino with the San Bernardino City Fire Department. BILL BLAKEMORE [04;41;25;02] And how long have you been, in one way or another, connected with the fire department? MAT FRATUS About twenty years. BILL BLAKEMORE About twenty years. And you grew up around her? MAT FRATUS [04;41;30;27] Yes I did. Um, born and raised up on the mountain here, my kids are the fifth generation of my family that have been living up here, so we have a lot of strong roots in this community. BILL BLAKEMORE [04:41:41:01] So what did it feel like to see your own community burn? MAT FRATUS Uh, the best way I can describe it is just surreal. Uh, driving through areas that I've known my entire life that are literally going up in flames. The house I grew up in, uh, houses, every house, uh, probably within an eighth of a mile, uh, of it had burned by the time I came up on the hill. [04;42;02;08] It was just, it was very difficult to see. Areas like this, people's houses that I knew who lived there, who used to live there, uh, now just piles of rubble. BILL BLAKEMORE Did you ever think you would see anything like this when you were growing up? MAT FRATUS [04:42:14:06] I really didn't. Uh, you kind of learn to live with fire when you live in a mountainous area like this, in an urban interface area, but uh, in all that time it had never really threatened the, the structures to this extent. Never had it come this close. [04;42;26;07] And this time not only did it come close, but it just roared through large sections of housing. BILL BLAKEMORE And the old timers, did they tell you when, the last time they had seen a fire like this? MAT FRATUS [04:42:35:06] I don't know anybody that had ever seen a fire of this magnitude. We've had some large ones, but uh, over time the mountain has become more and more populated, uh, and the, the level of, of interface has increased, uh, but nobody that I know of had ever really seen it burn to this level, this many houses, do this much devastation and impact. BILL BLAKEMORE [04:42:54:25] So you're a fire chief, you're a professional fire chief, fire fighter? MAT FRATUS Yes. BILL BLAKEMORE And I, and you're talking about global warming? That's a whole different field. How come you fire, you're not the first one we've run into, how come you fire chiefs are nowadays talking about global warming? MAT FRATUS [04:43:09:03] Well, there's a lot of evidence that's indicating that there is, that global warming itself is having a great deal of impact on the intensity and the frequency of the fires that we're having. Uh, clearly we're having more people move into the interface areas, and that's certainly one element of it. [04;43;26;11] But, as we begin to see the fires each year grow in intensity, um, it becomes more and more difficult to suppress them, and then it becomes somewhat of a vicious cycle, because as these fires grow they actually contribute by their products of combustion into the global warming, uh, process again. [04:43:42:02] So it's very difficult to try to find the balance, but uh, we do know that even prior to the 2003 fire season, in the years prior to that, we are experiencing warmer weather, drier fuel conditions, uh, drought, all of which were contributing substantially to the kind of fires that we were having and the intensity that they were coming at. BILL BLAKEMORE [04;44;01;05] What are some of the other things that are related, sometimes, to global warming, that are elements that, coming together, can contribute to making it a worse fire? MAT FRATUS [04;44;09;08] Well the, the warming, um, the, the drought that we experienced, and this of course, you know, you start looking into the chain in the ecosystem, and how this happens, uh, we had experienced several years of drought before the 2003 fire season. In the San Bernardino Mountains one of the issues that that brought about was an infestation of the bark beetle. And this particular species of bark beetle has always been present in the San Bernardino Mountains, but the, the tree's natural defense to, to ward off these bark beetles is to create pitch, which pushes them out of the tree. [04:44:41:16] But it takes, uh, enough moisture to create that sap and the pitch to push them out, and because of the drought they were unable to defend themselves, which just made a perfect breeding ground. [04:44:51:10] So, what had happened in this mountain, even before the fire, maybe even as devastating as the fire in some ways, is the fact that we had hundreds and thousands of trees, and we're talking hundred year old trees that were dying in a matter of months. [04;45;05;16] So, you would look across the forest and what you would see is just fields and fields of dead trees. And of course we knew that if we were to have a fire in these conditions, uh, it was going to be devastating. Uh, we weren't even sure how bad it could be. [04:45:19:20] When you take a hundred foot tree that's dead and you put it together with a hundred more hundred foot trees that are dead, and then you light the fuse underneath them, um, it's basically, it's just a powder keg. BILL BLAKEMORE [04:45:30:09] So what was, what would it have been like if we had been standing here in the midst of the worst fire, in this little cauldron of a valley here? MAT FRATUS [04;45;34;16] Well, I watched this area burn from a ridge that was farther back over this way, and I watched it right up until probably, there were still houses burning in here around midnight, and it was absolutely intense. Uh, we wandered down some roads trying to get in on the ridges on the other side, and the, just the sound of the fire was deafening. You had to, to yell to the person that was standing five feet away from you, and you couldn't even see the fire yet. [04:46:00:13] This was just the noise from the fire. Uh, so the, the amount of fuel that it had to burn, and the intensity that it had that, when it came over this ridge, uh, was just phenomenal. BILL BLAKEMORE Hell on earth. MAT FRATUS [04:46:12:04] I would describe it as that, yes. BILL BLAKEMORE Noise from a fire? MAT FRATUS Yes, I've heard it described before by people, they describe it as a freight train. My best description was, if you've ever stood at the base of a very large waterfall, uh, that was what it sounded like. It was just a constant roar, and again, so loud you couldn't speak to the people next to you without yelling. [04:46:34:21] And yet the fire was still in a place you couldn't even see it, it was that far away. That was how much, uh, intensity it carried with it as it went through here. BILL BLAKEMORE [04:46:41:25] And all basically because things were just too dry, so it brought in the beetles, that made it drier, and it made it even drier, so when it caught fire it was even drier. MAT FRATUS [04:46:48:15] Uh, that is a, a big part of it. Uh, there's also a lot of, another element that we think impacted this was the forest management policies. Uh, we have really, as, as a fire service it's been a, a hundred years of suppressing one hundred percent of all the fires, and in this area in particular they're very sensitive to cutting any trees. Even property owners are not allowed to cut trees on their own property. [04;47;12;20] So, the forest has to be allowed to take care of itself. The forest is going to stay healthy one way or the other, and a healthy forest is not too dense with trees. This forest became unhealthy because it was too dense with trees, and if you, you can only, uh, suppress the natural cycle of the forest for so long before it's going to do what it needs to do. [04;47;32;11] The bark beetle was part of that, and ultimately the fire was part of that as well. BILL BLAKEMORE [04;47;36;05] Now can you be sure it's global warming that has caused this recent drought that brought in the bark beetle that brought in the dryness? MAT FRATUS [04;47;41;02] Well, uh, in my profession I would not, uh, say that I, I am sure that I could offer scientific evidence, but what I do know is, uh, for myself, I've been in the fire service for a while, I know many others that have spent their entire careers in the fire service, and there is certainly something that is different in the intensity and the frequency of the fires that we're experiencing, and all indicators, and there is some strong evidence that this is a trend that we can expect to continue. [04:48:08:16] Uh, we're looking at our fire season 2006 right now, and we're gearing up for another intense fire season in the, uh, the southern areas. Even as we speak they're having intense fires in the Texas/Oklahoma areas, areas where you don't typically have large conflagrations where they're burning through towns and so forth. But this is something that we're seeing on a much more regular basis than we did before. BILL BLAKEMORE [04;48;29;12] So maybe the land is a little bit more sensitive to drying for fires than people had thought? MAT FRATUS Uh, that would certainly be one explanation for the conditions that we're seeing. BILL BLAKEMORE [04:48:39:27] And what are you hearing in general? I mean, I know you're not a climatologist, and we're not going to represent you as one, you're a firefighter. But what are you guys in general hearing about global warming and the likelihood of it just continuing to get worse? MAT FRATUS [04:48:52:25] Uh, well it wasn't something originally that we ha really looked at as a, a causal factor for these elements that we're seeing change, and the way that the fires are coming about. But uh, in absence of other things, more and more it really points, uh, to global warming as at least one of the significant elements that's causing this change in the fire- BILL BLAKEMORE We're, and we've been talking to climatologists, and they tell us that the carbon in the atmosphere that they've been measuring since '58 is just inexorably going up, and every year it goes up a little bit more. [04;49;19;13] You add to that carbon with a fire, of course, but to get, for all reasons the carbon is continuing to go up, which means more global warming, and they don't see an end in sight yet. And the carbon stays in the atmosphere a hundred years. [04;49;31;29] What is the, how do you, how does that make you feel? MAT FRATUS [04;49;35;15] Well, any time there is a change like that in the climate it's going to impact, uh, the fires, the wild land fires. Um, the things that we really look at, I mean, the, the fuels themselves are going to be impacted, that's one of the significant factors that we use to calculate how intense something will burn, or how readily it will burn. Um, the weather patterns are also going to have a huge impact, not only while the fire is burning, but also, you know, what kind of a winter are we having, what kind of a summer are we expecting. [04:50:06:18] This particular winter we were very dry in January and February, so our grass crops came up early. Then it started to rain in March and April, it was almost backwards of what a typical season would be. So now we have the equivalent of two grass crops that are coming up. [04:50:20:12] When they dry out in the spring and summer we're going to have a very intense fire season. So all of those things are certainly going to impact what we can expect to see in the wild land firefighting front. BILL BLAKEMORE [04;50;28;21] And what about snow pack and early snow melt? How, does that effect it further, so that the water runs off before summer's over? MAT FRATUS [04:50:37:04] Uh, well, certainly those would be some of the impacts of drought or, or lack of. Um, some of the broader things we have to look at, which occurred after several yeas of drought we had the most devastating fire, the San Bernardino, or San Bernardino National Forest had ever experienced. The following year we had record rainfall. Well, because of the fire the previous year, this caused record floods, uh, we had very devastating floods that impacted not only the mountain areas, but the front country area, the city of San Bernardino, we had several fatalities because of that. [04:51:08:05] So it's never really one single event, there is generally several things that are going to lead up to it and there will be several byproducts of an event like this, and most of them have been very devastating. BILL BLAKEMORE [04:51:19:21] Huh, the worst kind of, the worst kind of season. And when you have a burned off area like this, does this increase run off? MAT FRATUS Yes, it does. The natural vegetation, once it grows into the soil, actually holds the soil back, so you can, the ground can withstand a substantial amount of rain and not have the slough of the top soil. [04:51:39:29] Once all that vegetation is burned away, you immediately lose the top soil. And this is an element of the intensity of the fires. When we do controlled burnings to try to regulate the vegetation, we do it at a very low intensity, so you burn off the surface fuels, but it allows for the fuels to grow back at another time, relatively quickly, but it does thin it out. [04:52:01:07] When you let it grow for years and years and years and get thick, and then you have an uncontrolled wild land fire like the one we had in 2003 go through, it burns it right down to the rocks. [04:52:10:05] It essentially destroys the vegetation, takes it many more years to grow back. so, for those years, while it's growing back, you're going to be susceptible to, uh, devastating floods on a fire like this size. BILL BLAKEMORE [04;52;20;06] And if it keeps warming, and the warming accelerates like most of the climatologists are saying it will. [OFF CAMERA COMMENTS] BILL BLAKEMORE [04;53;02;07] So if the global warming keeps accelerating as the climatologists are telling it will, it's going to keep going up, because the carbon is going to keep going up, and then it's going to start going up faster and faster, that sounds to me like you are going to be fighting for the rest of your career an ultimately unwinable battle. MAT FRATUS [04;53;20;04] Well, if in fact the, uh, the changes in the fire behaviors and the intensity of the fires that we're seeing, at least in the southern region here are attributed to global warming, if that is the case, um, and it appears that global warming is an issue that is not going to subside or go away any time soon, it is absolutely reasonable to assume that we are going to see fires, uh, what we thought was the anomaly will soon become the rule, which will change the way that we have to attack them. [04:53:47:21] Um, it will change the amount of, of fires that we'll just have to let burn, and unfortunately could create greater damage than we've seen in the past. BILL BLAKEMORE And add all that much more carbon to the atmosphere. MAT FRATUS [04;54;00;09] That is part of the vicious cycle of the global warming and its impact on wild land fire. BILL BLAKEMORE Everybody we're interviewing we're asking this: what's the solution? MAT FRATUS [04;54;10;10] Well, uh, that I really don't know. I mean, from a firefighter's perspective, uh, I think our biggest thing is that we're hoping that a solution is found. Um, we know that, uh, you know, once a wild land fire starts, as much as it contributes to it, there's not really much more we can do than, than just try and suppress it. But uh, as far as, you know, the clear answers, I'm sure, are going to be social, they're going to be technical, there's going to be a lot with it that's going to have to change if we're going to reverse this trend. BILL BLAKEMORE [04;54;38;24] Everybody we, we're also asking everybody we talk to, in your gut, how bad do you imagine it getting? I mean, I don't know if you have kids, but when today's kids are, you know, in middle age, I mean, you've already experienced hell on earth, and some climatologists are saying a lot of the human race is going to experience hell on earth. You see it in these fires. How, in your gut, how bad do you think it could be in fifty, sixty years? MAT FRATUS [04:55:01:00] Well, it, it's very difficult to tell. Um, I, I would like to think that we would be able to reverse some of the trend. However, under the scenario that, that things don't change, and it continues to escalate, um, we probably won't even recognize the way that we address the fire situation in fifty years compared to what we do now. I mean, for right now for us it's a surprising change. Uh, for those that will come after us it will just be the way they have to do business, and uh, there's really, I mean, you can only do so much as a fire service to put a fire out. [04:55:35:15] At some point you just have to stand back and let it go. And as the interface continues to encroach in, into the wild land, and we have more and more houses built in areas that are prone to fires, uh, you, there's nothing much that you can do but stand back, keep your people safe, try to suppress it as best you can, prevent it as best you can, but they're going to burn, and there's going to be damage. BILL BLAKEMORE [04;55;57;01] All right. MAN I was hoping you could just give us a quick summary of this fire in terms of lives lost, houses lost, acreage. BILL BLAKEMORE [04:56:04:04] Looking at me, of course. MAT FRATUS OK, yeah. [OFF CAMERA COMMENTS] MAT FRATUS [04;56;12;17] The old fire was one of several fires that, uh, began to burn in late October of 2003. Um, because of that resources were stretched thin all over the state. This fire ultimately burned into another fire that started a few days sooner, the Grand Prix Fire, and collectively as they grew together it burned about ninety-three thousand acres, which is the largest fire in the history of the San Bernardino National Forest. [04;56;36;11] Uh, we had several structures lost up on the mountain top, we had even more structures lost down in the city of San Bernardino, over a thousand residences were lost just in this fire alone, in addition to multiple outbuildings, commercial buildings, vehicles, and so forth. Uh, we had several thousand people actually displaced, had to find temporary shelter, and some of them permanently displaced as their homes were burned down. Um, it definitely changed the face of, of operations not only up on the mountaintop area here, but in the city itself. BILL BLAKEMORE [04;57;11;25] Did you, uh, anybody ever put a dollar figure on it? MAT FRATUS I don't know if they have finished putting the dollar figure on it. The cost of this fire is still growing in some ways. These, now more indirect ways, uh, direct costs of the fire, of course, you know, the suppression cost, the costs to the housing people, and so forth, but the cost of rebuilding, cost of, uh, jobs that were lost, cost of businesses that will never rebuild, those are costs that will really be, uh, it will take a long time to really figure how much that's cost to communities. BILL BLAKEMORE Were, were there fatalities in the fire? MAT FRATUS [04;57;45;22] There were, um, indirect, and you know, and just for off camera stuff, those slides that I gave you have got all the statistic stats. BILL BLAKEMORE That's great. MAT FRATUS [04;57;53;11] I don't want to contradict them, I don't have a lot of them off the top of my head, but they'll be there for you to use. BILL BLAKEMORE OK, great. OK, great. [OFF CAMERA COMMENTS] BILL BLAKEMORE [04:58:04:08] My goodness, this is, what is, what are we looking at here? MAT FRATUS Well, what we're standing in now is the foundation of what once was a house. And uh. [OFF CAMERA COMMENTS] BILL BLAKEMORE Just tell us all about this. MAT FRATUS [04:58:15:09] Well what you're looking at now, uh, is the foundation of what was probably a, uh, a fairly large house. One of the things about a house once it burns down, it's almost kind of an optical illusion, you don't realize how big the house was just based on the, the foundational area, which is all we're looking at here. [04:58:34:20] But, as you see here, uh, up across the ridge, in fact just about everywhere you look up here, you'll find foundations that represent, uh, at one point, what was somebody's home, along with everything that was in it. And as you look through some of the ashes you can see, you know, melted aluminum and so forth, these were everything from windows to personal belongings, to uh, irreplaceable effects. [04;58;55;00] And when you multiply this by the hundreds of homes that were lost in this fire, uh, it's really very sad to see this happen. BILL BLAKEMORE [04:59:01:09] And all this timber, the lumber that's still here, that was what was basically bringing the fire in. MAT FRATUS [04:59:06:23] Yes, it was. And while those trees were burning, um, again, you're looking at, uh, hundred foot tall trees, and the flame links were probably one and a half times that much. So, it was an incredible sight to see fires, uh, groves of trees burning like that with huge flame links and a tremendous amount of heat coming through. BILL BLAKEMORE [04:59:27:23] What's a flame link? MAT FRATUS Uh, that would be the, the length of the flame from the base of its origin up to the tip of the flame. BILL BLAKEMORE Oh right, extraordinary. [OFF CAMERA COMMENTS] BILL BLAKEMORE [04;59;43;23] Keep talking about what we're looking at here. MAT FRATUS OK, um, one f the problems that we had in the fire was once we got into heavily populated areas like this, uh, the trees burning was one thing, but as we started burning the houses, the, the synthetics, the chairs, the wall coverings, and so forth, they actually burn with about twice the intensity of the natural vegetation. [05:00:05:12] So these became a fuel model all by themselves, so several hundred homes burning at a, at one single time, uh, represented a tremendous amount of heat that just proliferated the fire. BILL BLAKEMORE Wow. MAN That's great. [BREAK IN AUDIO] MAT FRATUS [05;00;19;04] [AUDIO PICKS UP MID SENTENCE] .big when we started, and now it's, you know, it's this, this was probably- BILL BLAKEMORE Fascinating. MAT FRATUS You know, this was a multi-story house, so you could have been looking, um, eighteen hundred to two thousand square feet, and you wouldn't ever think it just by looking at this area here, it doesn't look that big. BILL BLAKEMORE [05;00;34;22] Wow. Wow. Did you always know you wanted to be a fireman? MAT FRATUS Um, you know, I can't say that I did. BILL BLAKEMORE We, we met each other when we were paired on a couple of hurricane stories in 2004, and found a mutual interest in nature stories, but global warming especially, and then Clayton came up with this great idea last spring. [OFF CAMERA COMMENTS] [END]

<p>Stations Please Note: This package/segment contains third party material. Unless otherwise noted, this material may only be used within this package/segment.</p>\n<p></p>\n<p>NOTE: We send our packages with discrete, separate audio. Our reporter's track can be removed by deleting the audio on channel one.</p>\n<p></p>\n<p>AFFILIATE MARKET NOTES: Taylor Swift was born in West Reading, PA. Jimmy Buffett was born in Pascagoula, MS and grew up in Mobile, AL. He died in Sag Harbor, NY. Chris Rock is from New York, NY. Diplo grew up in Miami, FL. The 2023 Burning Man Festival is located in Black Rock Desert, NV.</p>\n<p></p>\n<p>--SUPERS--</p>\n<p></p>\n<p>:00-29</p>\n<p>"Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour"</p>\n<p>Courtesy Variance Films</p>\n<p></p>\n<p>:30-58</p>\n<p>CNN</p>\n<p></p>\n<p>:59-1:13</p>\n<p>From Diplo</p>\n<p></p>\n<p>--LEAD IN--</p>\n<p></p>\n<p>AND NOW FOR A LOOK AT SOME OF THE HEADLINES FROM THE WORLD OF ENTERTAINMENT. HERE'S DOUGLAS HYDE WITH THE HOLLYWOOD MINUTE.</p>\n<p></p>\n<p>--PKG--</p>\n<p></p>\n<p>(nat) "It's a cruel summer.Are you ready for it?"</p>\n<p></p>\n<p>A CRUEL SUMMER? NOT FOR TAYLOR SWIFT! SHE'S HAD A WILDLY SUCCESSFUL TOUR, RECORD-BREAKING ADVANCE SALES FOR HER UPCOMING CONCERT FILM, AND HERE'S SOME MORE GOOD NEWS... SPOTIFY JUST ANNOUNCED THAT HER 2019 HIT "CRUEL SUMMER" HAS SURPASSED A STAGGERING ONE BILLION STREAMS. "CRUEL SUMMER" BECOMES THE FIFTH TAYLOR SWIFT SONG TO HIT THE BILLION-STREAM MARK..</p>\n<p></p>\n<p>(nat) "Trying to stay out of trouble all winter, spring, summer and fall."</p>\n<p></p>\n<p>WE NOW KNOW THAT JIMMY BUFFETT WAS FIGHTING MERKEL CELL SKIN CANCER AT THE TIME OF HIS DEATH. ACCORDING TO AN UPDATE FROM HIS OFFICIAL WEBSITE, BUFFETT HAD THE DISEASE FOR FOUR YEARS AND CONTINUED TO PERFORM DURING TREATMENT. THE BELOVED SINGER-SONGWRITER PASSED AWAY SEPTEMBER FIRST AT THE AGE OF 76.</p>\n<p></p>\n<p>THOUSANDS WERE STRANDED AFTER HEAVY RAINS LEFT THE BURNING MAN ARTS AND MUSIC FESTIVAL A MUDDY MESS. BUT CHRIS ROCK AND DIPLO MANAGED TO FIND A WAY OUT. THE D-J POSTED VIDEO OF THEIR ESCAPE, WHICH SAW THEM TREKKING OVER SIX MILES BEFORE SOME KIND FANS GAVE THEM A LIFT IN A PICK-UP TRUCK. IN HOLLYWOOD, I'M DOUGLAS HYDE.</p>\n<p></p>\n<p>-----END-----CNN.SCRIPT-----</p>\n<p></p>\n<p>--KEYWORD TAGS--</p>\n<p></p>\n<p>TAYLOR SWIFT CRUEL SUMMER SPOTIFY BILLION ERAS TOUR JIMMY BUFFETT CANCER CHRIS ROCK BURNING MAN DIPLO</p>\n<p></p>

<p>https://komonews.com/news/project-seattle/seattle-homeless-crisis-governor-inslee-substantial-progress-homelessness-tour-seattle-encampment-cleanup#</p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p>Wire/StoryDescription:</p>\n<p>SEATTLE Gov. Jay Inslee visited the site of the Myers Way homeless encampment in Seattle on Monday, where he touted progress on clearing highway encampments and warned more money will be needed in the near future to continue the state's efforts.</p>\n<p></p>\n<p>The 25-acre encampment grew for months along State Route 509 in Seattle's Highland Park neighborhood as seniors who live across the street reported safety concerns both before and after a man was murdered in the camp over the summer.</p>\n<p></p>\n<p>"We are moving at as rapid pace as the dollars allow," Inslee said after a tour of the site with social workers and Washington State Department of Transportation crews. "Washington state is closing encampments, its getting people housed, its getting people to break drug addiction. We make progress one day at a time, weve made very substantial progress in the last year."</p>\n<p></p>\n<p>The Myers Way encampment was closed last week after months of outreach efforts to the people living there. Social workers were able to place 30 of the 36 people at the encampment into housing prior to being removed.</p>\n<p></p>\n<p>Promoted Links</p>\n<p>Video from our partners</p>\n<p>Brought to you by Taboola</p>\n<p>25 Years Strong & Trusted by 36K+ Customers</p>\n<p>Oracle NetSuite</p>\n<p>During his visit, Inslee also met with Diane Radischat, who lives at senior apartments across the street from the encampment and has vocally criticized the state for months about the impact the encampment was having on the neighborhood.</p>\n<p></p>\n<p>RELATD | Removal orders posted after 80% of people at Myers Way encampment accept housing</p>\n<p></p>\n<p>"You really do need to include those of us who are impacted by these situations," Radischat reproached Inslee at his site visit. "It's been a long time. It's been too many times. I'm grateful that when we got everybody to the table they stuck to their word, but the process of getting to the table needs major progress.</p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p>Governor Inslee speaking with volunteers during his visit to the Myers Way encampment cleanup site (KOMO)</p>\n<p></p>\n<p>Radischat said the encampment grew considerably after the state closed the nearby 1st Avenue South homeless encampment in March. When that encampment was removed, Inslee visited the site and said the freeway homeless encampments were a "scourge" on the state and that more effort was needed to provide housing and then remove people from the side of the highway.</p>\n<p></p>\n<p>The state estimated the Myers Way encampment ranged between 30 and 50 people living at the site. Neighbors described the encampment as "the wild, wild west."</p>\n<p></p>\n<p>Radischat said she was glad the governor visited the site , but added she is still not satisfied with the state's overall response to the seniors' concerns.</p>\n<p></p>\n<p>RELATED | 'It's the wild, wild west': Barricades rise as tension mounts over sprawling Seattle encampment</p>\n<p></p>\n<p>"I wouldnt say that I was elated. You can spew words all you want, weve had a lot of that today. They should have come when we first started calling them," Radischat said.</p>\n<p></p>\n<p>The work was done under the state's "Right of Way" initiative, which was given $150 million by the state Legislature in 2022 to deal with homeless encampments around the highways.</p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p>Vehicles and other items left at the Myers Way encampment as volunteers cleanup the site. (KOMO)</p>\n<p></p>\n<p>Inslee said those funds are starting to run out and the Legislature will need to take up the issue again in the upcoming session. The state department of commerce, which administers the initiative's funds, estimates there is enough money to keep operations going until June 2025.</p>\n<p></p>\n<p>This is kind of like we are climbing a mountain, were going uphill, were climbing as fast as we can and were making progress ... I think weve had quite a visible change on the I-5 corridor," Inslee said.</p>\n<p></p>\n<p>As of July 31, 870 people have been moved indoors since the program started. Of those, 714 are still in housing, and 126 are listed as "successful exits," according to the Right of Way initiative's dashboard.</p>\n<p></p>\n<p>Several of the encampments were closed down after major incidents, such as an explosion at an encampment outside Harborview Medical Center, a massive fire at the Mercer Street encampment and months of active drug trafficking and gun violence at the Ship Canal bridge site.</p>\n<p></p>\n<p>When questioned by KOMO News about what the state can do to address public safety issues in the encampments, Inslee said outreach and housing are the solution.</p>\n<p></p>\n<p>"By doing what were doing. The report today is we are cleaning up a major site. This encampment is being eliminated, the place by Harborview is gone. We are making progress and I know thats stunning to report at times, but its true," Inslee said.</p>\n<p></p>\n<p>While most of the people from the encampment were placed into housing through outreach, several did not accept offers of housing and new encampments have formed within a few blocks of the now-closed encampment on Myers Way.</p>\n<p></p>\n<p>Comment bubble</p>\n<p>JOIN THE CONVERSATION (58)</p>\n<p>"We still have a big problem," Radischat said.</p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p><b>--SUPERS</b>--</p>\n<p>Monday</p>\n<p>Seattle</p>\n<p></p>\n<p>00:52 - 00:56 </p>\n<p>Gov. Jay Inslee</p>\n<p>(D) Washington </p>\n<p></p>\n<p>01:13 - 01:17 </p>\n<p>Diane Radischat</p>\n<p>Lives Near Encampment</p>\n<p></p>\n<p><b>--LEAD IN</b>--</p>\n<p></p>\n<p><b>--REPORTER PKG-AS FOLLOWS</b>--</p>\n<p>Nats "This is hard work." </p>\n<p>THE WORK IS NOWHERE NEAR FINISHED AT THE MYERS WAY HOMELESS ENCAMPMENT. </p>\n<p>Nats "It takes work right." </p>\n<p>THE GOVERNOR PRAISED SOCIAL WORKERS WHO MOVED 30 PEOPLE FROM THIS SITE INTO HOUSING .</p>\n<p>Nats "Youre getting the job done." </p>\n<p>AND REPEATED HIS CLAIM THAT THESE FREEWAY ENCAMPMENTS ARE UNACCEPTABLE.</p>\n<p>Gov. Jay Inslee "Washington state is closing encampments, its getting people housed." </p>\n<p>THE STATE HAS CLOSED 30 CAMPS THROUGH ITS RIGHT OF WAY INITIATIVE WHICH INSLEE SAYS IS NOW RUNNING OUT OF MONEY. SOME OF THESE CAMPS HAVE ONLY BEEN SHUT DOWN AFTER COMPLETE CHAOS LIKE THIS EXPLOSION AT A DRUG CAMP OUTSIDE HARBORVIEW MEDICAL CENTER AND THIS MASSIVE FIRE LAST MONTH AT MERCER STREET. THERE WAS A MURDER HERE AT MYERS WAY AND SENIORS ACROSS THE STREET REPORTED HEARING FREQUENT GUNFIRE. </p>\n<p>"How do you break the months-long cycle of public safety disasters around these encampments? By doing what were doing.\" The report today is we are cleaning up a major site ... We are making progress and I know thats stunning to report at times, but its true." </p>\n<p>"But in the meantime for the seniors who have had to live around this for four or five months its a problem the answer is very frustrating were working on it.\"</p>\n<p>"If thats the answer to your question, its not an adequate answer because its not a solution." </p>\n<p>DIANE RADISCHAT RAISED CONCERNS ABOUT THE CAMP IN THE SPRING. </p>\n<p>"The process of getting to the table needs major progress." </p>\n<p>SHE SAYS COMMUNITIES SHOULDN'T HAVE TO WAIT MONTHS ON END FOR ACTION. </p>\n<p>"You've been the one sounding the alarm here, the governor is here, are you now satisfied. No." </p>\n<p>"They should have come when we first started calling them."</p>\n<p><b>--TAG</b>--</p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p><b>-----END-----CNN.SCRIPT-----</b></p>\n<p></p>\n<p><b>--KEYWORD TAGS--</b></p>\n<p>WASHINGTON GOVERNOR HOMELESS ENCAMPMENT</p>\n<p></p>

HOLLYWOOD HOME MOVIES

[TAPE 4] [OFF CAMERA COMMENTS] BILL BLAKEMORE [04;00;36;24] To start, just say your name and how to spell it so it's on there for the transcriber. ANTHONY WESTERLING Anthony Westerling, ANTHONY WESTERLING. [OFF CAMERA COMMENTS] BILL BLAKEMORE [04;00;58;19] And um, and your title here. ANTHONY WESTERLING I'm an assistant project scientist. BILL BLAKEMORE And your specialty? ANTHONY WESTERLING [04;01;04;13] Wildfire and climate. BILL BLAKEMORE Wildfire and climate? ANTHONY WESTERLING Yeah. BILL BLAKEMORE [04;01;07;16] OK, well, the basic question I have is, we're doing a series about global warming and its impacts. What can you tell us about the impact of global warming on the wildfire situation? ANTHONY WESTERLING [04;01;17;11] Well, you know, California in particular has a very diverse climate and a very diverse ecosystem, so there's a lot of variety here. That means that no one story is going to tell you about the whole state. But there are two common elements that are true for wildfire everywhere, and that's, is there enough fuel to burn? You have continuous fuel, you can get a fire that spreads to a large size. [04:01:40:07] And the other is, is the fuel dry enough to burn? So climate change effects both of those things. And one, one aspect is changes in precipitation and in temperature during the growing season effect the moisture available to grow vegetation that can later burn. [04:01:56:20] And the other thing is, temperature during the, the, uh, fire season itself, so during the summer typically, uh, drives wildfire risks. So the hotter it is the more likely it is to burn in some places, not in others. So, just to give you some examples, uh, if you're out in the desert here east of San Diego, you could see a place where there's very sparse vegetation, and normally it might not be able to carry a fire to a large size in the vegetation because it's not continuous enough. [04:02:28:06] But, um, if you get enough precipitation, for example, you can get a lot of grass that will grow, and cure out, and dry out during the, the summer, and, and then you can get a large fire. [04:02:37:13] You go up to some place like Yosemite and Sequoia, and you have these pine forests, they're really drive, the wildfire risks in places like that are really driven by temperature in particular. [04;02;51;06] Uh, and as you go up in elevation, snow is very important. If you melt the snow earlier in the year, or if you get less snow and more rain in the wintertime you get a much longer dry season during the summer, and that means you get a lot more opportunities for fires to burn, you have a longer time when vegetation can dry out. [04:03:10:21] And so, we're already seeing this to some extent around the west. We've had tremendous increases in forest fire risks, and forest. [OFF CAMERA COMMENTS] BILL BLAKEMORE [04:03:25:02] Before you pick up with we're already seeing this around the west, I want to ask a point just to finish completing the dots. If it is true that, that global warming means, is often bringing us a lot more rain early in the growing season and a lot more drying out later. OK, ready? OK, so to complete the dot what is, what is, uh, the dots, what is, what is global warming and climate change doing to early rains and later drying? ANTHONY WESTERLING [04;03;50;16] Well, you know, it varies a lot in terms of precipitation. If you look at a broad range of these models, uh, you'll see that they're all broadly in agreement in terms of warmer future for, for the western United States. Now some of them maybe are warmer than others, but they all have, are in the same direction, and it's not that huge a spread in temperature. [04:04:12:16] But, when you look at precipitation it's a very different story, a lot of uncertainty about precipitation. So, some models are much dryer in, in a place like southern California, and others are much wetter in terms of how much precipitation you're going to get. [04;04;28;00] That part's really un-, unpredictable at this point. We can't say what's going to happen with precipitation. And, and so fire regimes, fire risks like we have here in southern California that are driven both by temperature and a lot of antecedent precipitation are very uncertain, we don't know, uh, whether it would increase or decrease under climate change, because we don't know how wet it's going to be. [04;04;50;21] But, if you look at some place like northern California, um, in the Sierra's, the coast ranges, places like that, is really strongly driven by temperature, and dry years tend to be both warmer and less precipitation. And, and so you get a really big impact from climate change in all the models that we've looked at in northern California, for example. BILL BLAKEMORE [04:05:13:21] So, so it's true in some places that, that global warming means that you're getting heavier rains early in the year when it's growing, and much hotter and dryer later in some places- ANTHONY WESTERLING You know, I'm not the person to ask. BILL BLAKEMORE [04:05:23:16] OK, OK fine. OK, good. So what have your projections, what are your, give us a sense of quantification of, of how much worse you're seeing- ANTHONY WESTERLING [04:05:34:29] Well what about what, what we're already seeing, and then we'll talk about- BILL BLAKEMORE Yeah, yeah, go- ANTHONY WESTERLING .projections. BILL BLAKEMORE What you're already seeing, In other words it's already, there's- ANTHONY WESTERLING [04;05;38;06] Yes. So, looking at the western United States, there's just been a tremendous increase in the frequency of large dangerous forest fires. And it's really been concentrated at sort of mid-elevations, or like around seven thousand feet in elevation, and uh, the worst place in terms of the biggest increase has been the northern Rockies. [04:05:57:13] And then the second after that is, is California in the Sierra Nevadas and the coast ranges of the northern California coast. [OFF CAMERA COMMENTS] ANTHONY WESTERLING [04;06;13;08] OK, so the worst, uh, the worst that we've seen so far, the biggest increase has been in the northern Rockies, concentrated around seven thousand feet in elevation. And after that comes California, uh, especially the Sierras and the coast ranges along the north coast. [04:06:30:10] Uh, it's been a tremendous increase in both places, and it, and those, those two account for, for most of the changes in the west. There's been a lot of discussion about the effects of, of um, a century of land management on fire risks, because when you suppress fires for a long time in some places you get an increased fuel load, you get more trees growing close together, you get more shrubs and things like that, and it can carry fire to a large size. [04:06:59:08] But, uh, that effect is completely overwhelmed by, by the temperature signal that we're seeing. What's happening is that the snow is melting earlier in the year on a, at very regular intervals now, and uh, we're getting much longer fire seasons, it dries out much more than before, and we just get tremendous increase in, uh, in the number of large wildfires in the mountains of the west. BILL BLAKEMORE [04:07:26:24] And you can, and you can just complete the circle there for us with global warming, about why, why it appears- ANTHONY WESTERLING [04;07;32;02] So, if this is, you know, if you ask any climatologist, they're going, they're not going to be able to tell you what, were these temperature increases, these early springs driven by climate change or not, just like they can't say any specific storm was caused by climate change. [04;07;05;22] But, if you think about it as an analog for the future, it tells us that we're going to have much greater fire risks, we're going to have a lot more large forest fires tan we do right now. BILL BLAKEMORE [04;07;58;26] Because the snow melts out sooner? ANTHONY WESTERLING Because the snow melts out sooner it, you have both a longer dry season, that means that, that the vegetation is not going to be buffered by the moisture in the snows and then in the soils. [04:08:11:28] And then subsequently it also means that, that you have just a longer time when an ignition can cause a fire. So, you get a much longer fire season, and much more intense. BILL BLAKEMORE And for the public who's a little bit confused about fires, wildfires, they're good, they're bad, they replenish the earth, they don't replenish the earth. We saw Yosemite come back, etc., etc. ANTHONY WESTERLING [04;08;32;08] Well, if you have a, a system that's adapted to, say, burning every fifty years, or burning every hundred years, and you start burning it ever ten years, you're going to completely change the character of that ecosystem, it's not going to be this iconic forest like you have now, it'll be something else. BILL BLAKEMORE [04:08:49:29] And what about the impact on human development? ANTHONY WESTERLING [04;08;51;11] Well, the biggest problem in California, the biggest challenge for the state going forward is that some of our fastest growing areas in terms of population and development are in the path of what we see, where we see some of the biggest increases in fire risks in the future. And so places that account for a very small percentage of the state's population now, uh, really are driving the increase in, in property losses in the state from wildfire. [04:09:19:18] And those are the places that are going to have the biggest increases in fire frequency in future, uh, driven by temperature increases from climate change. BILL BLAKEMORE [0:11:26:27] I didn't quite follow that. Why are they driving it? I mean they didn't, you said the places that have the least population.? ANTHONY WESTERLING [04;09;32;06] OK, so they have, presently they account for a small percentage of the state's population, but they're the fastest growing, and, and they're- BILL BLAKEMORE Start that from the beginning. When you say "they" you're talking about what? ANTHONY WESTERLING [04;09;42;06] So the Sierra, um, the Sierra, Sierra Nevada foothills, and sort of the expanding ring of wild and urban interface around the core, you know, Bay Area metropolitan area in northern California, very rapidly growing populations, rapidly growing development. And it's dispersed around its edges, so you're sprinkling expensive homes in places that like to burn. [04:10:07:19] And they're going to burn even more when you increase the temperature. And the damages from. The vulnerability to the state's economy from building another apartment building in San Diego is negligible, whereas if you build another house out in the Sierra foothills, you're dramatically increasing the state's economic vulnerability to climate change impacts from, through wildfire. Is that.? BILL BLAKEMORE [04;10;31;27] Exactly, helping us understand the economic impact of wildfires is a very interesting point. ANTHONY WESTERLING Right. So, so part of this, this uh, future risk that, that the state is going to have to manage is, how do we control, or do we not control development in these areas? [04;10;46;28] Do we allow the wild and urban interface, that's these homes sprinkled throughout, uh, what are currently, you know, undeveloped areas, to grow? And that's a very difficult issue, because on the one hand you increase the state's vulnerability, but on the other hand that's the use that people want to make on that land, and if they have to forego that, that's also an economic impact for the state. [04:11:10:20] So either way, it's a lose/lose situation. You don't develop in those lands, or you do and you, you have much greater costs and much greater risks. BILL BLAKEMORE [04;11;19;14] So both for the wild environment, the ecosystems, and for the human environment, global warming is causing much greater likelihood of wildfires. ANTHONY WESTERLING That's right. And when you combine that with population growth and development in these currently lower density areas, uh, it, it's going to be a tremendous management problem for the state in the future. [04;11;41;09] For one thing, fire managers have very different options when there are homes and people living in an area and when there aren't, in terms of how they can manage wildfire. [04;11;50;13] They can take decisions that are more strategic, thinking about what are, what are the resources, the natural resources that they want to preserve, and what can, um, they do in terms of lighting a back fire, for example, and they'll just let one area burn and focus their resources somewhere else. [04:12:08:24] When you have a lot of homes in, in an area that's, that's prone to large wildfires, they take a very different strategy. They, they try to protect islands around development that has significant value. [04;12;21;10] And, and so you get larger fires because they have to focus their resources on protecting these little islands within the, the wildfire rather than fighting the wildfire itself. BILL BLAKEMORE [04:12:32:15] And how sure are you that it's going to keep warming? ANTHONY WESTERLING I just listen to what the climatologists tell me. BILL BLAKEMORE And what do they, and what is your assessment of what the climatologists are telling you about that? ANTHONY WESTERLING [04;12;41;21] Well, what we see on the ground is that it's already happening, it looks just like what they tell us to expect to see. So, from my own parochial point of view it sure looks like climate change to me. BILL BLAKEMORE [04:12:53:11] And what is your general expectation from your specialty of whether or not you expect it to keep going and accelerating? ANTHONY WESTERLING I'm sorry, can you rephrase that question? [LAUGHS] BILL BLAKEMORE Is this a problem, is this a problem from what you're being told and from what your general understanding is that's very likely to keep going and getting worse? ANTHONY WESTERLING [04;13;09;05] Yeah, I think this will continue to get much worse. BILL BLAKEMORE Much worse? ANTHONY WESTERLING Yes. BILL BLAKEMORE I mean.? ANTHONY WESTERLING [04:13:16:24] Well because, think about it, as you move up in elevation, you'll have some place in the west that's just a little bit colder than, than the threshold where the snow would melt. OK? And so that area is very vulnerable right now. [04:13:33:18] And so when we get a warm spring right now, that area melts sooner than it would otherwise. You go uphill a little bit further and the impact is, is not so clear, because, because there's more temperature that you can use up as the temperature increases before you're going to melt the snow. Right? So, you get a very sudden response in places that are vulnerable now, that are close to the threshold where the snow's going to melt. [1:14:00:08] But there are a lot of parts of the mess that are not burning now that might burn in the future as temperatures continue to increase. And so the problems that we have in the northern Rockies around seven thousand feet in elevation, and in parts of California, may become much more common. You know, maybe they will spread to higher elevations. [04;14;17;16] Maybe we'll have a problem in the northwest where we have not had as much of a problem now because it's much wetter than it is here. BILL BLAKEMORE [04;14;22;29] So, you're also an economist? ANTHONY WESTERLING I'm also an economist. BILL BLAKEMORE You're general sense of the economic impact, therefore, from all the fires that, uh, global warming is bringing? ANTHONY WESTERLING [04:14:31:09] You know, I think that the biggest economic impact is going to be from the sort of synergistic effects, the combined effects of different things. You know, we generally tend to look at things with blinders on, we'll look at just the effects of climate change on wildfire, or just the effects on the water system. [04;14;46;27] Well, if you burn out a water shed, if you burn out, say, the west slope of the Sierra Nevadas, you have the ecological impacts, you have the impacts on, say, people's enjoyment of the, the scenery and fishing and things like that, you have the impact on people's homes, but you also are going to get more run off. It's, you know, the, the problem with climate change for water resources is that, that uh, if you get an earlier spring, you get earlier run off, and you can't manage the reservoirs to captures as much of the water as you can if it runs off later in the year. [04:15:21:24] Well, if you have a lot of fires in the slopes above that reservoir, you're going to get more erosion, you're going to get more sediment run off. That, that creates additional complications for managing these resources. You're going to have flashier run off, you know, because uh, it won't be retained by the roots in the soil because there won't be as many roots in the soil. [04:15:46:16] And, and so all of these problems we really have to get a sense of how they build on one another, and that's an area that has not been sufficiently explored yet. BILL BLAKEMORE [04;15;55;08] And if the temperature and the carbon keep going up and up and up.? ANTHONY WESTERLING [04:15:59:29] We'll keep passing thresholds where we start to see effects that we didn't anticipate, or that, that, you know, occur rather suddenly rather than sort of gradual changes, like the wildfire in the western United States, it really just kicked up in the mid 1980's. There was nothing going on for decades, and then, and then just the next year it was a different system entirely, and it's been like that for almost twenty years now. [OFF CAMERA COMMENTS] BILL BLAKEMORE [04;16;43;13] So fire and carbon? ANTHONY WESTERLING OK, so I can't remember the exact number off the top of my head, I can give it to you later. BILL BLAKEMORE Just your- ANTHONY WESTERLING Something in the order of twenty to forty percent of the carbon uptake in the United States is potentially occurring in these mountain forest of the western United States. [04:17:03:10] And when people talk about, um, you know, the growth of forests in North America, they usually think of the east coast and, and southern piedmont as places that have, uh, increased forest cover since the last turn of the century, the 1900's. but, and maybe that hasn't occurred to the same degree here in the western United States, I'm not certain about that. [04:17:24:00] But, but what we do know is that the western United States, the mountain ecosystems are an enormous carbon pool, and if we start releasing that carbon because we are increasing temperatures and therefore burning more regularly, we're going to release a lot of carbon that's currently stored in these forests, and that's going to be a positive feedback, it's going to exacerbate the, the whole problem with climate change. BILL BLAKEMORE [04:17:48:01] Right. Did you hear that all right? It's a very important thing he just said. [OFF CAMERA COMMENTS] ANTHONY WESTERLING [04;18;02;02] The percentage of carbon uptake accounted for by western mountain forests for the United States is something like on the order of twenty to forty percent, and that ecosystem, the western mountain forests in the United States are an enormous carbon pool. They're storing carbon in the trees, in the, in the soils, and as we raise temperatures, uh, a couple of things happen. [04:18:33:22] And a colleague of mine, David Shimmel [PH] has found that it increases the, it decreases the ability of the ecosystems to uptake carbon in the years that it's warmer, when you get a warmer spring. But it's also the case that, that uh, as you warm it up, it burns off, and, and the more frequently that it burns the more, the less carbon it's going to store, and that means a very large positive feedback on climate change where, where climate change gives you warmer temperatures, gives you more frequent fires, which gives you more carbon release from the forests and soils, which is a positive feedback to climate change. BILL BLAKEMORE [04:19:17:18] So it gives you both more carbon back into the atmosphere and less carbon taken out of it because there's less plants to take it out? ANTHONY WESTERLING And that would also be something to consider as well. You might want to ask Dave Shimmel before you, before you, you say anything that I said about him. BILL BLAKEMORE [04:19:32:24] This sounds pretty dire in the next, you're talking about something that we're going to see increasing not in a few hundred years, but increasingly in the coming decades. ANTHONY WESTERLING [04;19;40;25] Yeah, I mean, this is already something that we're seeing happen, I think. BILL BLAKEMORE So this is going to effect the life of today's toddlers by the time they're middle age. ANTHONY WESTERLING Yeah, my daughter. BILL BLAKEMORE Your daughter. You have a daughter? ANTHONY WESTERLING [04:19:54:13] Uh-huh. BILL BLAKEMORE How old? A kid? ANTHONY WESTERLING Uh, she's twenty-one months. BILL BLAKEMORE Twenty-one months old. ANTHONY WESTERLING [04;19;57;26] Yeah, and I have no idea what kind of, what kind of world she's going to inherit. BILL BLAKEMORE Are you worried about it? ANTHONY WESTERLING Of course, any rational person. BILL BLAKEMORE Scared? ANTHONY WESTERLING [04;20;14;22] Concerned. BILL BLAKEMORE What do you think is, do we have a chance of stopping it in any way, controlling it? ANTHONY WESTERLING [04;20;23;04] My own subjective opinion is that we still maybe have a window of opportunity, but it's something that has to be dealt with in this generation. If we put it off to our children, it'll be too late. That's, that's my opinion. BILL BLAKEMORE And that means drastically cutting carbon emissions? ANTHONY WESTERLING [04;20;46;27] That means drastically cut, cutting carbon emissions, yes. BILL BLAKEMORE Oh good, more good news. ANTHONY WESTERLING OK? BILL BLAKEMORE Anything else? [OFF CAMERA COMMENTS] BILL BLAKEMORE [04;21;43;19] So, so for people who live in the San Bernardino foothills, for example, if they've been listening to all kinds of voices that are still out there, credibly, about climate change, can you just add a sentence or two to tell them, and they said, why should I care that the climate is changing? ANTHONY WESTERLING [04:22:01:04] Well, they probably moved to that place because they liked it the way it is now. If you change the climate you're going to change the ecosystem, the weather, everything about the place that, that might have attracted them in the first place is going to be effected. BILL BLAKEMORE [04:22:15:24] And your not talking about a century from now. ANTHONY WESTERLING No, probably not. MAN But specifically with the wildfire threat, I mean- ANTHONY WESTERLING [04:22:24:11] Well, you know, wildfire in San Bernardino foothills, for example, San Bernardino, is a very different thing from wildfire in the Sierra Nevadas or northern coast, it's much more driven by, well it depends what kind of ecosystem you're in. You know, the coastal chaparral, for example, the shrub lands in California, uh, are really driven by Santa Anna winds, the wildfire risks there are really driven by Santa Anna winds. [04:23:52:18] And that's more of a, you know, very short term meteorological condition rather than thinking about temperature or the antecedent precipitation, and that's something that's very hard to, to understand how it might change coming out of a climate change simulation. BILL BLAKEMORE [04;23;07;06] You mean because it's possible, for example, that climate change in the San Bernardino foothills for all you know could mean more rain there for a while. ANTHONY WESTERLING It could, or it could mean less, I, it's harder to say. BILL BLAKEMORE Less rain and more fire. Right, so- ANTHONY WESTERLING [04:23:22:26] I mean, if you warm it up and you get less rain, you get less vegetation over time in a place like that, and you're going to have maybe lower fire risks, especially at lower elevations, then you might have now, because it would become more like a desert and less like it, like it is now. BILL BLAKEMORE [04;23;39;25] But we haven't, here's a question, seen many more of these fires in foothills like that, where there's suburban- ANTHONY WESTERLING Yeah, well, part of the problem is that the suburban settlement has expanded into areas that, that burn, and those fires are not at all unusual for, for this place. BILL BLAKEMORE [04;23;58;05] Right, but anything, you're saying generally from seven thousand feet up you're seeing climate change effects? ANTHONY WESTERLING [04;24;03;26] That's right, in mid to upper elevations, seeing, and it's really focused, you know, like six to eight thousand feet elevation- BILL BLAKEMORE It started in the eighties, mid-eighties? ANTHONY WESTERLING [04;24;12;27] Mid-eighties, yeah. BILL BLAKEMORE Oh, oh, important thing, was Yosemite part of that pattern? Yeah, the big Yosemite fire was in the mid eighties. ANTHONY WESTERLING [04;24;21;16] Yeah, it's all- BILL BLAKEMORE Could you just say something about, for example- ANTHONY WESTERLING [04;24;25;16] You can't say anything about one specific fire, you know. It's looking at the statistics of all of them together. BILL BLAKEMORE [04:24:30:12] Right, In other words, it's- ANTHONY WESTERLING That means I'm not going to say. [LAUGHS] BILL BLAKEMORE That's one of the semantic problems we're finding in covering this. It fits the pattern-[BREAK IN AUDIO] [OFF CAMERA COMMENTS] ANTHONY WESTERLING [04;24;44;24] Well the answer for- MAN Any time, go ahead. ANTHONY WESTERLING .for southern California would be that they do not at all fit the, a pattern that you would attribute to climate change. BILL BLAKEMORE [04:24:49:17] And that would be for the fires you're having in southern California? ANTHONY WESTERLING That's right, the uh, coastal southern California looks just like it's looked for a long time, it just, it accounts for less than one percent of the change in, in fires that we would attribute to changes in-[BREAK IN AUDIO] ..by Santa Anna wind events. BILL BLAKEMORE Right. ANTHONY WESTERLING [04;25;11;13] And, and so nothing about this system is particularly vulnerable in the short term to temperature changes, whereas at higher elevations where you get, for example in the northern Rockies you have a big area that's right at an elevation where it's just below freezing for a large part of, you know, late winter, early-[BREAK IN AUDIO] [OFF CAMERA COMMENTS] [END ANDY WESTERLING INTERVIEW] [BEGIN MAT FRATUS INTERVIEW] BILL BLAKEMORE [04:38:17:21] So what do you, what do you remember from, from around here? What was happening? MAT FRATUS Well, the day that the fire transitioned up the hill and crested over the top and immediately went down a chimney up over in this area here, and uh, the vegetation was so thick, there was huge stands of trees that had already been impacted by the bark beetle, and really nothing to stop the fire from coming down, to the point that, because this road has no exit, there's only one way in and one way out. [04;38;44;27] And we really, none of our tactics that we were using were really slowing the fire down. Uh, we essentially had to pull out of this area and just resign that these houses would just have to burn. [OFF CAMERA COMMENTS] BILL BLAKEMORE [04;39;15;08] So, tell us, tell us more about what we're looking at here, what happens, and, and what the, what the information is. MAT FRATUS [04;39;20;16] Well, this particular area is a, kind of an outskirt of Lake Arrowhead, an area known as Cedar Glen, and, and Hook Creek Road area here. Um, a lot of houses, although you can't tell now that this was actually a very densely populated area, um, because of the, the types of vegetation, because of the weather patterns that we were having, uh, the fire came through here at such a rate that everything that we had tried to do to stop it really was, for the most part, ineffective. [04;39;47;20] And you have to keep in mind that even though, uh, we have very good fire protection in this area on a normal day, we had fires burning throughout the state, so the resources we were working with were limited to start with, but the type of fire behavior we were dealing with was really unlike what most of us had seen. [04;40;02;05] I had talked to people who had been in the fire service their entire career, and not only this fire, but fires in proceeding years, because of the drought, because of the fuel conditions, they produced, uh, fire behavior, flame links, intensities that we had never really experienced before, and everything that we had to throw at it we did, and it just seemed to burn right through us. [04:40:21:02] So, we were taking a defensive posture in here, uh, for reasons of safety. We knew that we couldn't make a stand in this area and be effective. So uh, it was very difficult for a lot of us, I was born and raised in this area, and to see this entire area burn in my, in my lifetime, I've never seen a fire come through here of anything of that magnitude. [04;40;39;24] Uh, so the best we could do was try to get over one more ridge, uh, over to the next ridge over is where we finally made a stand, and uh, quite honestly, uh, as, as much as our, I think our tactics were effective ultimately what helped us win this fight was the weather change, uh, we had a low pressure come in, it actually began to rain, actually began to snow within a couple of days after this burning, and I have to wonder if that had not happened how much farther this fire would have gone, how much more devastation we would have seen. [OFF CAMERA COMMENTS] BILL BLAKEMORE [04;41;13;02] So first just say your name, your position, your title, how you spell it. MAT FRATUS OK. Mat Fratus, MAT, one T, Fratus, FRATUS, and I'm a division chief with the San Bernardino with the San Bernardino City Fire Department. BILL BLAKEMORE [04;41;25;02] And how long have you been, in one way or another, connected with the fire department? MAT FRATUS About twenty years. BILL BLAKEMORE About twenty years. And you grew up around her? MAT FRATUS [04;41;30;27] Yes I did. Um, born and raised up on the mountain here, my kids are the fifth generation of my family that have been living up here, so we have a lot of strong roots in this community. BILL BLAKEMORE [04:41:41:01] So what did it feel like to see your own community burn? MAT FRATUS Uh, the best way I can describe it is just surreal. Uh, driving through areas that I've known my entire life that are literally going up in flames. The house I grew up in, uh, houses, every house, uh, probably within an eighth of a mile, uh, of it had burned by the time I came up on the hill. [04;42;02;08] It was just, it was very difficult to see. Areas like this, people's houses that I knew who lived there, who used to live there, uh, now just piles of rubble. BILL BLAKEMORE Did you ever think you would see anything like this when you were growing up? MAT FRATUS [04:42:14:06] I really didn't. Uh, you kind of learn to live with fire when you live in a mountainous area like this, in an urban interface area, but uh, in all that time it had never really threatened the, the structures to this extent. Never had it come this close. [04;42;26;07] And this time not only did it come close, but it just roared through large sections of housing. BILL BLAKEMORE And the old timers, did they tell you when, the last time they had seen a fire like this? MAT FRATUS [04:42:35:06] I don't know anybody that had ever seen a fire of this magnitude. We've had some large ones, but uh, over time the mountain has become more and more populated, uh, and the, the level of, of interface has increased, uh, but nobody that I know of had ever really seen it burn to this level, this many houses, do this much devastation and impact. BILL BLAKEMORE [04:42:54:25] So you're a fire chief, you're a professional fire chief, fire fighter? MAT FRATUS Yes. BILL BLAKEMORE And I, and you're talking about global warming? That's a whole different field. How come you fire, you're not the first one we've run into, how come you fire chiefs are nowadays talking about global warming? MAT FRATUS [04:43:09:03] Well, there's a lot of evidence that's indicating that there is, that global warming itself is having a great deal of impact on the intensity and the frequency of the fires that we're having. Uh, clearly we're having more people move into the interface areas, and that's certainly one element of it. [04;43;26;11] But, as we begin to see the fires each year grow in intensity, um, it becomes more and more difficult to suppress them, and then it becomes somewhat of a vicious cycle, because as these fires grow they actually contribute by their products of combustion into the global warming, uh, process again. [04:43:42:02] So it's very difficult to try to find the balance, but uh, we do know that even prior to the 2003 fire season, in the years prior to that, we are experiencing warmer weather, drier fuel conditions, uh, drought, all of which were contributing substantially to the kind of fires that we were having and the intensity that they were coming at. BILL BLAKEMORE [04;44;01;05] What are some of the other things that are related, sometimes, to global warming, that are elements that, coming together, can contribute to making it a worse fire? MAT FRATUS [04;44;09;08] Well the, the warming, um, the, the drought that we experienced, and this of course, you know, you start looking into the chain in the ecosystem, and how this happens, uh, we had experienced several years of drought before the 2003 fire season. In the San Bernardino Mountains one of the issues that that brought about was an infestation of the bark beetle. And this particular species of bark beetle has always been present in the San Bernardino Mountains, but the, the tree's natural defense to, to ward off these bark beetles is to create pitch, which pushes them out of the tree. [04:44:41:16] But it takes, uh, enough moisture to create that sap and the pitch to push them out, and because of the drought they were unable to defend themselves, which just made a perfect breeding ground. [04:44:51:10] So, what had happened in this mountain, even before the fire, maybe even as devastating as the fire in some ways, is the fact that we had hundreds and thousands of trees, and we're talking hundred year old trees that were dying in a matter of months. [04;45;05;16] So, you would look across the forest and what you would see is just fields and fields of dead trees. And of course we knew that if we were to have a fire in these conditions, uh, it was going to be devastating. Uh, we weren't even sure how bad it could be. [04:45:19:20] When you take a hundred foot tree that's dead and you put it together with a hundred more hundred foot trees that are dead, and then you light the fuse underneath them, um, it's basically, it's just a powder keg. BILL BLAKEMORE [04:45:30:09] So what was, what would it have been like if we had been standing here in the midst of the worst fire, in this little cauldron of a valley here? MAT FRATUS [04;45;34;16] Well, I watched this area burn from a ridge that was farther back over this way, and I watched it right up until probably, there were still houses burning in here around midnight, and it was absolutely intense. Uh, we wandered down some roads trying to get in on the ridges on the other side, and the, just the sound of the fire was deafening. You had to, to yell to the person that was standing five feet away from you, and you couldn't even see the fire yet. [04:46:00:13] This was just the noise from the fire. Uh, so the, the amount of fuel that it had to burn, and the intensity that it had that, when it came over this ridge, uh, was just phenomenal. BILL BLAKEMORE Hell on earth. MAT FRATUS [04:46:12:04] I would describe it as that, yes. BILL BLAKEMORE Noise from a fire? MAT FRATUS Yes, I've heard it described before by people, they describe it as a freight train. My best description was, if you've ever stood at the base of a very large waterfall, uh, that was what it sounded like. It was just a constant roar, and again, so loud you couldn't speak to the people next to you without yelling. [04:46:34:21] And yet the fire was still in a place you couldn't even see it, it was that far away. That was how much, uh, intensity it carried with it as it went through here. BILL BLAKEMORE [04:46:41:25] And all basically because things were just too dry, so it brought in the beetles, that made it drier, and it made it even drier, so when it caught fire it was even drier. MAT FRATUS [04:46:48:15] Uh, that is a, a big part of it. Uh, there's also a lot of, another element that we think impacted this was the forest management policies. Uh, we have really, as, as a fire service it's been a, a hundred years of suppressing one hundred percent of all the fires, and in this area in particular they're very sensitive to cutting any trees. Even property owners are not allowed to cut trees on their own property. [04;47;12;20] So, the forest has to be allowed to take care of itself. The forest is going to stay healthy one way or the other, and a healthy forest is not too dense with trees. This forest became unhealthy because it was too dense with trees, and if you, you can only, uh, suppress the natural cycle of the forest for so long before it's going to do what it needs to do. [04;47;32;11] The bark beetle was part of that, and ultimately the fire was part of that as well. BILL BLAKEMORE [04;47;36;05] Now can you be sure it's global warming that has caused this recent drought that brought in the bark beetle that brought in the dryness? MAT FRATUS [04;47;41;02] Well, uh, in my profession I would not, uh, say that I, I am sure that I could offer scientific evidence, but what I do know is, uh, for myself, I've been in the fire service for a while, I know many others that have spent their entire careers in the fire service, and there is certainly something that is different in the intensity and the frequency of the fires that we're experiencing, and all indicators, and there is some strong evidence that this is a trend that we can expect to continue. [04:48:08:16] Uh, we're looking at our fire season 2006 right now, and we're gearing up for another intense fire season in the, uh, the southern areas. Even as we speak they're having intense fires in the Texas/Oklahoma areas, areas where you don't typically have large conflagrations where they're burning through towns and so forth. But this is something that we're seeing on a much more regular basis than we did before. BILL BLAKEMORE [04;48;29;12] So maybe the land is a little bit more sensitive to drying for fires than people had thought? MAT FRATUS Uh, that would certainly be one explanation for the conditions that we're seeing. BILL BLAKEMORE [04:48:39:27] And what are you hearing in general? I mean, I know you're not a climatologist, and we're not going to represent you as one, you're a firefighter. But what are you guys in general hearing about global warming and the likelihood of it just continuing to get worse? MAT FRATUS [04:48:52:25] Uh, well it wasn't something originally that we ha really looked at as a, a causal factor for these elements that we're seeing change, and the way that the fires are coming about. But uh, in absence of other things, more and more it really points, uh, to global warming as at least one of the significant elements that's causing this change in the fire- BILL BLAKEMORE We're, and we've been talking to climatologists, and they tell us that the carbon in the atmosphere that they've been measuring since '58 is just inexorably going up, and every year it goes up a little bit more. [04;49;19;13] You add to that carbon with a fire, of course, but to get, for all reasons the carbon is continuing to go up, which means more global warming, and they don't see an end in sight yet. And the carbon stays in the atmosphere a hundred years. [04;49;31;29] What is the, how do you, how does that make you feel? MAT FRATUS [04;49;35;15] Well, any time there is a change like that in the climate it's going to impact, uh, the fires, the wild land fires. Um, the things that we really look at, I mean, the, the fuels themselves are going to be impacted, that's one of the significant factors that we use to calculate how intense something will burn, or how readily it will burn. Um, the weather patterns are also going to have a huge impact, not only while the fire is burning, but also, you know, what kind of a winter are we having, what kind of a summer are we expecting. [04:50:06:18] This particular winter we were very dry in January and February, so our grass crops came up early. Then it started to rain in March and April, it was almost backwards of what a typical season would be. So now we have the equivalent of two grass crops that are coming up. [04:50:20:12] When they dry out in the spring and summer we're going to have a very intense fire season. So all of those things are certainly going to impact what we can expect to see in the wild land firefighting front. BILL BLAKEMORE [04;50;28;21] And what about snow pack and early snow melt? How, does that effect it further, so that the water runs off before summer's over? MAT FRATUS [04:50:37:04] Uh, well, certainly those would be some of the impacts of drought or, or lack of. Um, some of the broader things we have to look at, which occurred after several yeas of drought we had the most devastating fire, the San Bernardino, or San Bernardino National Forest had ever experienced. The following year we had record rainfall. Well, because of the fire the previous year, this caused record floods, uh, we had very devastating floods that impacted not only the mountain areas, but the front country area, the city of San Bernardino, we had several fatalities because of that. [04:51:08:05] So it's never really one single event, there is generally several things that are going to lead up to it and there will be several byproducts of an event like this, and most of them have been very devastating. BILL BLAKEMORE [04:51:19:21] Huh, the worst kind of, the worst kind of season. And when you have a burned off area like this, does this increase run off? MAT FRATUS Yes, it does. The natural vegetation, once it grows into the soil, actually holds the soil back, so you can, the ground can withstand a substantial amount of rain and not have the slough of the top soil. [04:51:39:29] Once all that vegetation is burned away, you immediately lose the top soil. And this is an element of the intensity of the fires. When we do controlled burnings to try to regulate the vegetation, we do it at a very low intensity, so you burn off the surface fuels, but it allows for the fuels to grow back at another time, relatively quickly, but it does thin it out. [04:52:01:07] When you let it grow for years and years and years and get thick, and then you have an uncontrolled wild land fire like the one we had in 2003 go through, it burns it right down to the rocks. [04:52:10:05] It essentially destroys the vegetation, takes it many more years to grow back. so, for those years, while it's growing back, you're going to be susceptible to, uh, devastating floods on a fire like this size. BILL BLAKEMORE [04;52;20;06] And if it keeps warming, and the warming accelerates like most of the climatologists are saying it will. [OFF CAMERA COMMENTS] BILL BLAKEMORE [04;53;02;07] So if the global warming keeps accelerating as the climatologists are telling it will, it's going to keep going up, because the carbon is going to keep going up, and then it's going to start going up faster and faster, that sounds to me like you are going to be fighting for the rest of your career an ultimately unwinable battle. MAT FRATUS [04;53;20;04] Well, if in fact the, uh, the changes in the fire behaviors and the intensity of the fires that we're seeing, at least in the southern region here are attributed to global warming, if that is the case, um, and it appears that global warming is an issue that is not going to subside or go away any time soon, it is absolutely reasonable to assume that we are going to see fires, uh, what we thought was the anomaly will soon become the rule, which will change the way that we have to attack them. [04:53:47:21] Um, it will change the amount of, of fires that we'll just have to let burn, and unfortunately could create greater damage than we've seen in the past. BILL BLAKEMORE And add all that much more carbon to the atmosphere. MAT FRATUS [04;54;00;09] That is part of the vicious cycle of the global warming and its impact on wild land fire. BILL BLAKEMORE Everybody we're interviewing we're asking this: what's the solution? MAT FRATUS [04;54;10;10] Well, uh, that I really don't know. I mean, from a firefighter's perspective, uh, I think our biggest thing is that we're hoping that a solution is found. Um, we know that, uh, you know, once a wild land fire starts, as much as it contributes to it, there's not really much more we can do than, than just try and suppress it. But uh, as far as, you know, the clear answers, I'm sure, are going to be social, they're going to be technical, there's going to be a lot with it that's going to have to change if we're going to reverse this trend. BILL BLAKEMORE [04;54;38;24] Everybody we, we're also asking everybody we talk to, in your gut, how bad do you imagine it getting? I mean, I don't know if you have kids, but when today's kids are, you know, in middle age, I mean, you've already experienced hell on earth, and some climatologists are saying a lot of the human race is going to experience hell on earth. You see it in these fires. How, in your gut, how bad do you think it could be in fifty, sixty years? MAT FRATUS [04:55:01:00] Well, it, it's very difficult to tell. Um, I, I would like to think that we would be able to reverse some of the trend. However, under the scenario that, that things don't change, and it continues to escalate, um, we probably won't even recognize the way that we address the fire situation in fifty years compared to what we do now. I mean, for right now for us it's a surprising change. Uh, for those that will come after us it will just be the way they have to do business, and uh, there's really, I mean, you can only do so much as a fire service to put a fire out. [04:55:35:15] At some point you just have to stand back and let it go. And as the interface continues to encroach in, into the wild land, and we have more and more houses built in areas that are prone to fires, uh, you, there's nothing much that you can do but stand back, keep your people safe, try to suppress it as best you can, prevent it as best you can, but they're going to burn, and there's going to be damage. BILL BLAKEMORE [04;55;57;01] All right. MAN I was hoping you could just give us a quick summary of this fire in terms of lives lost, houses lost, acreage. BILL BLAKEMORE [04:56:04:04] Looking at me, of course. MAT FRATUS OK, yeah. [OFF CAMERA COMMENTS] MAT FRATUS [04;56;12;17] The old fire was one of several fires that, uh, began to burn in late October of 2003. Um, because of that resources were stretched thin all over the state. This fire ultimately burned into another fire that started a few days sooner, the Grand Prix Fire, and collectively as they grew together it burned about ninety-three thousand acres, which is the largest fire in the history of the San Bernardino National Forest. [04;56;36;11] Uh, we had several structures lost up on the mountain top, we had even more structures lost down in the city of San Bernardino, over a thousand residences were lost just in this fire alone, in addition to multiple outbuildings, commercial buildings, vehicles, and so forth. Uh, we had several thousand people actually displaced, had to find temporary shelter, and some of them permanently displaced as their homes were burned down. Um, it definitely changed the face of, of operations not only up on the mountaintop area here, but in the city itself. BILL BLAKEMORE [04;57;11;25] Did you, uh, anybody ever put a dollar figure on it? MAT FRATUS I don't know if they have finished putting the dollar figure on it. The cost of this fire is still growing in some ways. These, now more indirect ways, uh, direct costs of the fire, of course, you know, the suppression cost, the costs to the housing people, and so forth, but the cost of rebuilding, cost of, uh, jobs that were lost, cost of businesses that will never rebuild, those are costs that will really be, uh, it will take a long time to really figure how much that's cost to communities. BILL BLAKEMORE Were, were there fatalities in the fire? MAT FRATUS [04;57;45;22] There were, um, indirect, and you know, and just for off camera stuff, those slides that I gave you have got all the statistic stats. BILL BLAKEMORE That's great. MAT FRATUS [04;57;53;11] I don't want to contradict them, I don't have a lot of them off the top of my head, but they'll be there for you to use. BILL BLAKEMORE OK, great. OK, great. [OFF CAMERA COMMENTS] BILL BLAKEMORE [04:58:04:08] My goodness, this is, what is, what are we looking at here? MAT FRATUS Well, what we're standing in now is the foundation of what once was a house. And uh. [OFF CAMERA COMMENTS] BILL BLAKEMORE Just tell us all about this. MAT FRATUS [04:58:15:09] Well what you're looking at now, uh, is the foundation of what was probably a, uh, a fairly large house. One of the things about a house once it burns down, it's almost kind of an optical illusion, you don't realize how big the house was just based on the, the foundational area, which is all we're looking at here. [04:58:34:20] But, as you see here, uh, up across the ridge, in fact just about everywhere you look up here, you'll find foundations that represent, uh, at one point, what was somebody's home, along with everything that was in it. And as you look through some of the ashes you can see, you know, melted aluminum and so forth, these were everything from windows to personal belongings, to uh, irreplaceable effects. [04;58;55;00] And when you multiply this by the hundreds of homes that were lost in this fire, uh, it's really very sad to see this happen. BILL BLAKEMORE [04:59:01:09] And all this timber, the lumber that's still here, that was what was basically bringing the fire in. MAT FRATUS [04:59:06:23] Yes, it was. And while those trees were burning, um, again, you're looking at, uh, hundred foot tall trees, and the flame links were probably one and a half times that much. So, it was an incredible sight to see fires, uh, groves of trees burning like that with huge flame links and a tremendous amount of heat coming through. BILL BLAKEMORE [04:59:27:23] What's a flame link? MAT FRATUS Uh, that would be the, the length of the flame from the base of its origin up to the tip of the flame. BILL BLAKEMORE Oh right, extraordinary. [OFF CAMERA COMMENTS] BILL BLAKEMORE [04;59;43;23] Keep talking about what we're looking at here. MAT FRATUS OK, um, one f the problems that we had in the fire was once we got into heavily populated areas like this, uh, the trees burning was one thing, but as we started burning the houses, the, the synthetics, the chairs, the wall coverings, and so forth, they actually burn with about twice the intensity of the natural vegetation. [05:00:05:12] So these became a fuel model all by themselves, so several hundred homes burning at a, at one single time, uh, represented a tremendous amount of heat that just proliferated the fire. BILL BLAKEMORE Wow. MAN That's great. [BREAK IN AUDIO] MAT FRATUS [05;00;19;04] [AUDIO PICKS UP MID SENTENCE] .big when we started, and now it's, you know, it's this, this was probably- BILL BLAKEMORE Fascinating. MAT FRATUS You know, this was a multi-story house, so you could have been looking, um, eighteen hundred to two thousand square feet, and you wouldn't ever think it just by looking at this area here, it doesn't look that big. BILL BLAKEMORE [05;00;34;22] Wow. Wow. Did you always know you wanted to be a fireman? MAT FRATUS Um, you know, I can't say that I did. BILL BLAKEMORE We, we met each other when we were paired on a couple of hurricane stories in 2004, and found a mutual interest in nature stories, but global warming especially, and then Clayton came up with this great idea last spring. [OFF CAMERA COMMENTS] [END]

GOOD FILE OF HAIR, BIKINIS, SWIMWEAR, ETC FROM 1991 OF KIDS AND YOUNG FOILKS ON SPRING BREAK IN FLORIDA.